New Mexico at New Mexico State - 2022 Matchup Preview

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, October 15th 2022 (8:00 PM EDT)
New Mexico -7 (38.5)
New Mexico State 21 - New Mexico: 9

Lobos (2 - 10) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Danny Gonzales (5 - 14)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU coming off BYE
UNM is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -8.5 (SP+ NMSU -12)
Projected Score: UNM: 25 - NMSU: 23 (48)
UNM Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNM Travel: 193 miles

Aggies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	New Mexico vs Maine	-6.0	42.5	W 41 - 0	U	Y
Fri 9/9	New Mexico vs Boise State	+17.0	43.5	L 14 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico vs UTEP	+2.0	38.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/24	New Mexico at LSU	+31.5	44.0	L 0 - 38	U	N
Fri 9/30	New Mexico at UNLV	+14.0	44.0	L 20 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/8	New Mexico vs Wyoming	+3.0	37.0	L 14 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/15	New Mexico at New Mexico State	-7.0	38.5	L 9 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/22	New Mexico vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.0	L 9 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5	New Mexico at Utah State	+14.5	42.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/12	New Mexico at Air Force	+21.0	37.5	L 3 - 35	O	N
Fri 11/18	New Mexico vs San Diego State	+15.0	36.0	L 10 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/25	New Mexico at Colorado State	+7.5	36.0	L 0 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	New Mexico State vs Nevada	+7.0	48.0	L 12 - 23	U	N
Thu 9/1	New Mexico State at Minnesota	+36.0	52.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State at UTEP	+17.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Wisconsin	+38.0	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	-4.5	53.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-15.0	54.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+7.0	38.5	W 21 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs San José State	+21.0	43.0
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Massachusetts	-1.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State vs Lamar	-22.0	48.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State at Missouri	+29.0	46.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State at Liberty	+24.0	51.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State vs Valparaiso	-31.5	55.0	W 65 - 3	O	Y
Mon 12/26	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	-.08	28%	27.1	31%	2.25	120	25%	114	2.15	.22	42%	22.3	45%	40%	3.92	57.1	1.7	1.2
NMSU	.12	42%	21.6	45%	3.14	101	41%	270	3.11	.4	50%	27.6	51%	50%	3.94	60.2	1.3	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	27.1	27.5	28.4%	2.15	1.7	14	234	120	114	3.1	59%	41%	31%	25%	21%	-.08
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	17.7	49.9%	3.94	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	51%	50%	17%	.4

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	22.3	26.3	42.4%	3.92	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	45%	40%	16%	.22
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	23.2	41.9%	3.11	1.3	22	370	101	270	3.3	38%	62%	45%	41%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	29:51	13.8	25%	33%	6.9	57.1	1.7	1.2	5.2	2.1	1	25.9
New Mexico State	12	30:31	21.9	38%	45%	6.9	60.2	1.3	2	6	1.6	0	26

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	59%	31%	38.8	119.5	3.1	5	-.08	2.25	57%	18%	1.02
NMSU Defense	12	51%	51%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.53	67%	12%	1.05

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	53%	45%	-	-	-	-	.15	3.05	69%	10%	0.93
NMSU Offense	12	38%	45%	30.8	100.6	3.3	15	.18	3.14	78%	12%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.9	21.7	114.1	5.3	9.6	10	8	-.03	1.6	37%	15%	-.02	4%	2
NMSU Defense	12	48%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.63	1.8	27%	40%	.75	5%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.32	1.8	33%	29%	.35	6%	2.2
NMSU Offense	12	62%	41%	24.7	43.2	269.7	6.3	10.9	15	10	.11	1.4	35%	28%	.2	8%	1.9

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -26.9 #132
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 6.0 #133
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: New Mexico State: -5.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -26.9 New Mexico State: -15.4

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -5.2 NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #140
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
New Mexico State's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #117
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0 #128
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #61

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2022 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 25
New Mexico State 23

Projected Total Points: 48

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	20	New Mexico -16.5	New Mexico	53.5	Over
2024	09/28	New Mexico State	40	New Mexico	50	New Mexico -9.5	New Mexico	54.0	Over
2023	09/16	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	27	New Mexico -2.5	New Mexico State	52.0	Under
2022	10/15	New Mexico State	21	New Mexico	9	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	38.5	Under
2021	09/11	New Mexico	34	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico -19.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	New Mexico	55	New Mexico State	52	New Mexico -4	New Mexico State	69.0	Over
2018	09/15	New Mexico State	25	New Mexico	42	New Mexico -3	New Mexico	60.5	Over
2017	09/09	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	30	New Mexico -7	New Mexico State	69.5	Under
2016	09/10	New Mexico State	32	New Mexico	31	New Mexico -11.5	New Mexico State	62.0	Over
2015	10/03	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	29	New Mexico -14	New Mexico State	65.5	Over
2014	09/20	New Mexico State	35	New Mexico	38	New Mexico -3	NA	0
2013	10/05	New Mexico	66	New Mexico State	17	New Mexico -7	New Mexico	0
2012	09/22	New Mexico State	14	New Mexico	27
2011	10/01	New Mexico	28	New Mexico State	42
2010	10/09	New Mexico State	16	New Mexico	14
2009	09/26	New Mexico	17	New Mexico State	20
2008	09/27	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	35
2007	09/08	New Mexico	44	New Mexico State	34
2006	09/09	New Mexico State	28	New Mexico	34
2005	09/17	New Mexico	38	New Mexico State	21
2004	09/25	New Mexico State	3	New Mexico	38
2003	09/27	New Mexico	24	New Mexico State	17
2002	09/21	New Mexico State	24	New Mexico	13
2001	11/24	New Mexico	53	New Mexico State	0
2000	09/15	New Mexico State	13	New Mexico	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	8	7	7 Overs
New Mexico	17	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 12	4 - 7	2 - 5	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 13	7 - 4	2 - 2	5 - 2

(#) UNM at (#) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNM	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#132	#117
Perf GradeGrade	#134	#113
OffenseOff	#136	#96
DefenseDef	#117	#105
Spec TeamsST	#71	#132
TalentTal	#122	#140
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

New Mexico on Offense


CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#136	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#133	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico Run Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#132	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#103	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#49

New Mexico Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNM Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#136	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#123	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#117
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#128	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Run GameRun	#20	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#105

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UNM Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#42
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#94	#131
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
New Mexico 7.0 (38.5)
New Mexico State won vs New Mexico this year (21-9)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico beat New Mexico State last year (38-20)
New Mexico beat New Mexico State in 2024 (50-40)
New Mexico State beat New Mexico in 2023 (27-17)

UNM's OC Derek Warehime (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Rocky Long (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD