Minnesota at Michigan State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, September 24th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -3 (50.0)
Minnesota 34 - Michigan State: 7 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (35 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (8 - 38 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MSU is playing their 4th straight game
MINN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -5 (SP+ MINN -15)
Projected Score: MINN: 23 - MSU: 28 (51)
MINN Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
MINN Travel: 462 miles, 1 hrs behind

Spartans (5 - 7) (3 - 6 - 3)
Coach Mel Tucker (13 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Minnesota vs New Mexico State	-36.0	52.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Minnesota vs Western Illinois	-41.0	56.5	W 62 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Minnesota vs Colorado	-28.0	47.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Minnesota at Michigan State	-3.0	50.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Minnesota vs Purdue	-9.0	53.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Minnesota at Illinois	-4.5	40.0	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/22	Minnesota at Penn State	+5.5	43.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/29	Minnesota vs Rutgers	-14.0	40.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Minnesota at Nebraska	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/12	Minnesota vs Northwestern	-17.0	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Minnesota vs Iowa	-2.0	31.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Minnesota at Wisconsin	+3.0	37.0	W 23 - 16	O	Y
Thu 12/29	Minnesota vs Syracuse	-10.5	45.0	W 28 - 20	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-22.0	54.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/10	Michigan State vs Akron	-34.5	56.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Michigan State at Washington	+3.5	56.5	L 28 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/24	Michigan State vs Minnesota	+3.0	50.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/1	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/8	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+27.0	64.5	L 20 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/15	Michigan State vs Wisconsin	+7.0	49.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Michigan State at Michigan	+22.0	55.0	L 7 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Michigan State at Illinois	+16.5	41.0	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-10.0	41.0	W 27 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/19	Michigan State vs Indiana	-12.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/26	Michigan State at Penn State	+19.0	54.5	L 16 - 35	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	.18	42%	23	43%	3.13	198	41%	162	3.73	.1	37%	22.9	38%	37%	3.75	45.3	1	1.4
MSU	.27	43%	24.6	44%	2.94	176	43%	254	3.78	.19	44%	29.9	41%	46%	3.43	63.9	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	23	8.3	42%	3.73	1	20	360	198	162	4.3	68%	32%	43%	41%	14%	.18
MSU Defense	13	29.9	27.8	44%	3.43	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	38%	61%	41%	46%	17%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	22.9	38	37.4%	3.75	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	37%	17%	.1
MSU Offense	13	24.6	24.8	43.3%	3.78	1.4	21	429	176	254	4.8	52%	48%	44%	43%	18%	.27

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	35:26	19.9	44%	60%	4.5	45.3	1	1.4	4.5	1.9	0	32
Michigan State	13	28:28	20.8	40%	70%	6.9	63.9	1.4	1.7	6.5	3.3	4	29.3

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	68%	43%	46.3	198.1	4.3	27	.12	3.13	81%	9%	0.91
MSU Defense	13	38%	41%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	70%	10%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	74%	10%	0.94
MSU Offense	13	52%	44%	36.8	175.6	4.8	23	.18	2.94	67%	10%	1.12

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	32%	41%	11.7	19.7	162	8.2	13.9	12	9	.31	1.8	29%	30%	.34	5%	2
MSU Defense	13	61%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.28	1.4	33%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	52%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.15	1.4	35%	21%	.12	7%	2
MSU Offense	13	48%	43%	18.7	30.8	253.7	8.3	13.6	27	10	.38	1.8	32%	33%	.4	7%	2.1

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Minnesota's 2022 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #16
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #90
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.6 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: Michigan State: 3.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: 16.0 Michigan State: 1.2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: 3.1 NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Michigan State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #67
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #48
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #82

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.3
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Minnesota's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 28
Minnesota 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 3
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 2
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Minnesota	23	Michigan State	20	Minnesota -4.5	Michigan State	44.5	Under
2023	10/28	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	12	Minnesota -6.5	Minnesota	41.5	Under
2022	09/24	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	34	Minnesota -3	Minnesota	50.0	Under
2017	10/14	Minnesota	27	Michigan State	30	Michigan State -4	Minnesota	40.5	Over
2013	11/30	Michigan State	14	Minnesota	3	Michigan State -14	Minnesota	0
2012	11/24	Minnesota	10	Michigan State	26
2011	11/05	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	24
2010	11/06	Michigan State	31	Minnesota	8
2009	10/31	Minnesota	42	Michigan State	34
2006	11/11	Michigan State	18	Minnesota	31
2005	11/12	Minnesota	41	Michigan State	18
2004	10/16	Michigan State	51	Minnesota	17
2003	10/18	Minnesota	38	Michigan State	44
2002	10/19	Michigan State	7	Minnesota	28
2001	10/20	Minnesota	28	Michigan State	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	7	1	1 Overs
Minnesota	8	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 9	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#) MINN at (#) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#16	#67
Perf GradeGrade	#4	#75
OffenseOff	#2	#52
DefenseDef	#28	#96
Spec TeamsST	#37	#92
TalentTal	#50	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Minnesota Injury Report

Michigan State Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#22	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#64

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#43	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#48	#5
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#103	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#9

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Down to Top G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Minnesota 3.0 (50.0)
Minnesota won at Michigan State this year (34-7)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Michigan State last year (23-20)
Minnesota beat Michigan State in 2023 (27-12)

MINN's OC Kirk Ciarrocca (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD