Michigan State at Penn State - 2022 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, November 26th 2022 (4:00 PM EST)
Penn State -19 (54.5)
Penn State 35 - Michigan State: 16 (Big Ten)

Spartans (5 - 7) (3 - 6 - 3)
Coach Mel Tucker (13 - 7)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PSU is playing their 7th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -13 (SP+ PSU -21)
Projected Score: MSU: 21 - PSU: 32 (53)
PSU Win prob: 91% | Cover: 51%
MSU Travel: 366 miles

Nittany Lions (11 - 2) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach James Franklin (66 - 34)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
PSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/2	Michigan State vs Western Michigan	-22.0	54.5	W 35 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/10	Michigan State vs Akron	-34.5	56.0	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/17	Michigan State at Washington	+3.5	56.5	L 28 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/24	Michigan State vs Minnesota	+3.0	50.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/1	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/8	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+27.0	64.5	L 20 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/15	Michigan State vs Wisconsin	+7.0	49.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Michigan State at Michigan	+22.0	55.0	L 7 - 29	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Michigan State at Illinois	+16.5	41.0	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/12	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-10.0	41.0	W 27 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/19	Michigan State vs Indiana	-12.0	47.0	L 31 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/26	Michigan State at Penn State	+19.0	54.5	L 16 - 35	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Penn State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Penn State at Purdue	-3.5	53.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/10	Penn State vs Ohio	-28.0	55.0	W 46 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Penn State at Auburn	-2.5	47.5	W 41 - 12	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Penn State vs Central Michigan	-28.0	61.5	W 33 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/1	Penn State vs Northwestern	-25.5	50.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Penn State at Michigan	+7.0	49.0	L 17 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/22	Penn State vs Minnesota	-5.5	43.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/29	Penn State vs Ohio State	+15.5	60.5	L 31 - 44	O	Y
Sat 11/5	Penn State at Indiana	-13.5	50.0	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/12	Penn State vs Maryland	-10.5	56.5	W 30 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Penn State at Rutgers	-18.5	45.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Penn State vs Michigan State	-19.0	54.5	W 35 - 16	U	N
Mon 1/2	Penn State vs Utah	-1.5	55.5	W 35 - 21	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.27	43%	24.6	44%	2.94	176	43%	254	3.78	.19	44%	29.9	41%	46%	3.43	63.9	1.4	1.7
PSU	.14	40%	31	39%	2.69	108	40%	269	3.45	.06	39%	20.5	42%	36%	2.48	46.1	1.2	2.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	13	24.6	21.6	43.3%	3.78	1.4	21	429	176	254	4.8	52%	48%	44%	43%	18%	.27
PSU Defense	13	20.5	15.1	39%	2.48	2.4	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	42%	36%	16%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	13	29.9	32.8	44%	3.43	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	38%	61%	41%	46%	17%	.19
PSU Offense	13	31	34	39.8%	3.45	1.2	20	376	108	269	3.2	43%	57%	39%	40%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	13	28:28	20.8	40%	70%	6.9	63.9	1.4	1.7	6.5	3.3	4	29.3
Penn State	13	27:56	20.3	39%	46%	5.4	46.1	1.2	2.4	6.5	2	3	27

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	13	52%	44%	36.8	175.6	4.8	23	.18	2.94	67%	10%	1.12
PSU Defense	13	54%	42%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.89	79%	10%	0.89

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	13	38%	41%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.78	70%	10%	0.85
PSU Offense	13	43%	39%	33.6	107.8	3.2	11	.02	2.69	61%	11%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	13	48%	43%	18.7	30.8	253.7	8.3	13.6	27	10	.38	1.8	32%	33%	.4	7%	2.1
PSU Defense	13	46%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.04	1.4	33%	25%	.18	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	13	61%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.28	1.4	33%	32%	.38	6%	2.1
PSU Offense	13	57%	40%	22.4	37.4	268.5	7.2	12	25	10	.24	1.6	35%	31%	.34	4%	2.1

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: NR
Michigan State's Offense Rating: NR
Michigan State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Michigan State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Michigan State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #67
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #48
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #82

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: Penn State: 13.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: 1.2 Penn State: 22.4

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 13.7 NR
Penn State's Offense Rating: NR
Penn State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Penn State's 2022 Expected Record: -
Penn State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 22.4 #8
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.6 #28
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.9 #11

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2022 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 3
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 2 - 2
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 2
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 32
Michigan State 21

Projected Total Points: 53

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2022 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Michigan State	10	Penn State	28	Penn State -7	Penn State	48.5	Under
2023	11/24	Michigan State	0	Penn State	42	Penn State -20	Penn State	42.0	Push
2022	11/26	Penn State	35	Michigan State	16	Penn State -19	Push	54.5	Under
2021	11/27	Michigan State	30	Penn State	27	Penn State -3.5	Michigan State	51.5	Over
2020	12/12	Penn State	39	Michigan State	24	Penn State -14.5	Penn State	45.5	Over
2019	10/26	Michigan State	7	Penn State	28	Penn State -5.5	Penn State	41.0	Under
2018	10/13	Penn State	17	Michigan State	21	Penn State -13.5	Michigan State	53.5	Under
2017	11/04	Michigan State	27	Penn State	24	Penn State -10	Michigan State	46.0	Over
2016	11/26	Penn State	45	Michigan State	12	Penn State -13.5	Penn State	53.5	Over
2015	11/28	Michigan State	55	Penn State	16	Michigan State -11	Michigan State	43.5	Over
2014	11/29	Penn State	10	Michigan State	34	Michigan State -11.5	Michigan State	0
2010	11/27	Penn State	22	Michigan State	28
2009	11/21	Michigan State	14	Penn State	42
2008	11/22	Penn State	49	Michigan State	18
2007	11/17	Michigan State	35	Penn State	31
2006	11/18	Penn State	17	Michigan State	13
2005	11/19	Michigan State	22	Penn State	31
2004	11/20	Penn State	37	Michigan State	13
2003	11/22	Michigan State	41	Penn State	10
2001	11/24	Michigan State	37	Penn State	42
2000	11/17	Penn State	42	Michigan State	23

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Penn State	13	5	5 Overs
Michigan State	8	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 9	5 - 5	3 - 1	2 - 4
Road Teams	9 - 12	5 - 5	4 - 2	1 - 3

(#) MSU at (#) PSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	PSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#67	#8
Perf GradeGrade	#75	#34
OffenseOff	#52	#53
DefenseDef	#96	#34
Spec TeamsST	#92	#15
TalentTal	#34	#15
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Michigan State Injury Report

Penn State Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#52	#34
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#48	#11
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PSU Def
Run GameRun	#103	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#27	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#105

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	PSU Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#6
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Penn State on Offense


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#53	#96
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#28	#82
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Penn State Run Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#82	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#64

Penn State Pass Game


CategoryCat	PSU Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#125
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#88
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'22 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Penn State -19.0 (54.5)
Penn State won vs Michigan State this year (35-16)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Michigan State last year (28-10)
Penn State beat Michigan State in 2023 (42-0)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD