Toledo at Ball State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 25th 2021 (2:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -4.5 (56.5)
Toledo 22 - Ball State: 12 (Mid-American)

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL is playing their 4th straight game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -6.5 (SP+ TOL -18)
Projected Score: TOL: 25 - BALL: 18 (43)
TOL Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 137 miles

Cardinals (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (23 - 36)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Ball State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Ball State vs Western Illinois	-31.0	58.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/11	Ball State at Penn State	+23.0	58.0	L 13 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/18	Ball State at Wyoming	+6.5	53.5	L 12 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/25	Ball State vs Toledo	+4.5	56.5	L 12 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/2	Ball State vs Army	+10.5	46.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Ball State at Western Michigan	+13.0	57.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	-1.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	-3.5	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Ball State at Akron	-20.0	58.0	W 31 - 25	U	N
Wed 11/10	Ball State at Northern Illinois	-3.0	59.5	L 29 - 30	U	N
Wed 11/17	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+2.5	57.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Tue 11/23	Ball State vs Buffalo	-6.0	59.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Ball State vs Georgia State	+6.0	52.5	L 20 - 51	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.26	46%	30.8	41%	2.67	168	49%	326	3.57	.11	39%	13.3	36%	43%	3.33	74.8	2	1.5
BALL	.21	47%	15.8	46%	3.16	178	49%	269	3.65	.14	46%	29.8	44%	48%	3.13	48.9	1.1	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	6	30.8	17.3	45.6%	3.57	2	27	494	168	326	4.2	47%	53%	41%	49%	19%	.26
BALL Defense	8	29.8	21.6	46.4%	3.13	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	44%	48%	19%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	6	13.3	16.7	39.3%	3.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	36%	43%	18%	.11
BALL Offense	8	15.8	24.4	47.2%	3.65	1.1	24	447	178	269	3.9	54%	46%	46%	49%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	6	33:33	27.2	48%	46%	9.5	74.8	2	1.5	6	1.8	1	32.4
Ball State	8	29:53	24.4	47%	54%	5.8	48.9	1.1	2.3	7	1.9	2	32.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	6	47%	41%	40.5	168	4.2	7	.02	2.67	68%	13%	0.82
BALL Defense	8	45%	44%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.74	59%	12%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	6	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.63	42%	11%	0.96
BALL Offense	8	54%	46%	45.8	178	3.9	15	.12	3.16	66%	9%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	6	53%	49%	23.8	36.5	325.8	8.9	13.7	18	7	.47	1.8	32%	42%	.53	6%	2
BALL Defense	8	55%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.26	1.4	27%	32%	.33	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	6	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.26	1.5	31%	30%	.28	7%	1.9
BALL Offense	8	46%	49%	20.5	31.4	269.3	8.6	13.1	17	6	.32	1.5	27%	38%	.42	6%	2.1

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Ball State: -3.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9 Ball State: -11.2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -3.1 NR
Ball State's Offense Rating: NR
Ball State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ball State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ball State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #108
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #106
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 25
Ball State 18

Projected Total Points: 43

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Toledo	38	Ball State	9	Toledo -29.5	Ball State	45.5	Over
2023	10/14	Ball State	6	Toledo	13	Toledo -17.5	Ball State	48.5	Under
2022	11/08	Toledo	28	Ball State	21	Toledo -11	Ball State	50.0	Under
2021	09/25	Ball State	12	Toledo	22	Toledo -4.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Toledo	24	Ball State	27	Toledo -9.5	Ball State	67.0	Under
2019	10/19	Ball State	52	Toledo	14	Ball State -3.5	Ball State	58.5	Over
2018	10/31	Toledo	45	Ball State	13	Toledo -19.5	Toledo	64.0	Under
2017	10/26	Ball State	17	Toledo	58	Toledo -26.5	Toledo	55.5	Over
2016	11/16	Toledo	37	Ball State	19	Toledo -19	Ball State	68.5	Under
2015	10/03	Ball State	10	Toledo	24	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2014	09/20	Toledo	34	Ball State	23	Toledo -9	Toledo	0
2013	09/28	Ball State	31	Toledo	24	Ball State -1	Ball State	0
2012	11/06	Toledo	27	Ball State	34
2011	11/25	Ball State	28	Toledo	45
2010	10/23	Toledo	31	Ball State	24
2009	10/03	Ball State	30	Toledo	37
2008	10/04	Toledo	0	Ball State	31
2007	11/13	Ball State	41	Toledo	20
2006	11/14	Toledo	17	Ball State	20
2005	10/15	Ball State	14	Toledo	34
2004	10/02	Toledo	52	Ball State	14
2003	10/25	Ball State	38	Toledo	14
2002	10/12	Toledo	37	Ball State	17
2001	10/20	Ball State	24	Toledo	20
2000	11/10	Toledo	31	Ball State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	9	7	3 Overs
Toledo	16	5	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 11	5 - 7	4 - 4	1 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 14	7 - 5	3 - 1	4 - 4

(#) TOL at (#) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#108
OffenseOff	#97	#114
DefenseDef	#9	#83
Spec TeamsST	#100	#45
TalentTal	#86	#116
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Ball State Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#17	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#25

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#106	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#116	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#91	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Toledo 4.5 (56.5)
Toledo won at Ball State this year (22-12)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Ball State last year (38-9)
Toledo beat Ball State in 2023 (13-6)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BALL's OC Kevin Lynch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD