Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -13 (51.5)
Northern Illinois 22 - Toledo: 20 (Mid-American)

Huskies (9 - 5) (9 - 4 - 1)
Coach Thomas Hammock (6 - 15)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (16 - 28 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL is playing their 6th straight game
NIU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ TOL -14)
Projected Score: NIU: 14 - TOL: 32 (46)
TOL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NIU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech	+19.0	57.0	W 22 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Northern Illinois vs Wyoming	+7.0	44.0	L 43 - 50	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Northern Illinois at Michigan	+27.5	54.5	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northern Illinois vs Maine	-21.5	62.0	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan	+0.0	62.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Northern Illinois at Toledo	+13.0	51.5	W 22 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green	-9.0	44.5	W 34 - 26	O	N
Sat 10/23	Northern Illinois at Central Michigan	+6.0	56.0	W 39 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3	Northern Illinois at Kent State	+3.5	72.0	L 47 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Northern Illinois vs Ball State	+3.0	59.5	W 30 - 29	U	Y
Wed 11/17	Northern Illinois at Buffalo	-2.0	59.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Tue 11/23	Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan	+6.5	60.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/4	Northern Illinois vs Kent State	+3.5	75.5	W 41 - 23	U	Y
Fri 12/17	Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina	+11.0	63.0	L 41 - 47	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU	.08	41%	17.1	40%	2.69	123	42%	241	3.69	.24	47%	24.3	45%	50%	3.5	69	1.7	1.2
TOL	.26	46%	30.8	41%	2.67	168	49%	326	3.57	.11	39%	13.3	36%	43%	3.33	74.8	2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Offense	6	17.1	16.3	40.7%	3.69	1.7	22	364	123	241	3.3	46%	54%	40%	42%	19%	.08
TOL Defense	6	13.3	7.7	39.3%	3.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	36%	43%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NIU Defense	6	24.3	27.8	46.9%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	50%	17%	.24
TOL Offense	6	30.8	45.8	45.6%	3.57	2	27	494	168	326	4.2	47%	53%	41%	49%	19%	.26

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northern Illinois	6	33:38	21.5	28%	63%	6.8	69	1.7	1.2	4.3	1.8	0	28
Toledo	6	33:33	27.2	48%	46%	9.5	74.8	2	1.5	6	1.8	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Offense	6	46%	40%	36.8	123	3.3	7	-.05	2.69	67%	13%	0.83
TOL Defense	6	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.63	42%	11%	0.96

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NIU Defense	6	54%	45%	-	-	-	-	.1	2.74	76%	10%	0.96
TOL Offense	6	47%	41%	40.5	168	4.2	7	.02	2.67	68%	13%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Offense	6	54%	42%	21.2	36.8	240.5	6.5	11.4	11	2	.19	1.5	32%	29%	.21	6%	1.7
TOL Defense	6	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.26	1.5	31%	30%	.28	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NIU Defense	6	45%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.43	1.6	30%	38%	.59	7%	2.2
TOL Offense	6	53%	49%	23.8	36.5	325.8	8.9	13.7	18	7	.47	1.8	32%	42%	.53	6%	2

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northern Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1 #98
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #62
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1 #117

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: Toledo: 5.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -7.1 Toledo: 6.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 5.95 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.3
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Northern Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 32
Northern Illinois 14

Projected Total Points: 46

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/05	Toledo	42	Northern Illinois	3	Toledo -14.5	Toledo	42.5	Over
2024	10/19	Northern Illinois	6	Toledo	13	Northern Illinois -3	Toledo	42.5	Under
2023	09/30	Toledo	35	Northern Illinois	33	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	48.0	Over
2022	10/08	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo	52	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	59.0	Over
2021	10/09	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	22	Toledo -13	Northern Illinois	51.5	Under
2020	12/05	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	41	Toledo -9	Toledo	53.5	Over
2019	11/13	Toledo	28	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo -2.5	Northern Illinois	54.5	Over
2018	11/07	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	15	Northern Illinois -3.5	Northern Illinois	54.0	Under
2017	11/02	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	56.5	Under
2016	11/09	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	31	Toledo -7.5	Northern Illinois	69.5	Under
2015	11/03	Toledo	27	Northern Illinois	32	Toledo -7	Northern Illinois	62.0	Under
2014	11/11	Northern Illinois	27	Toledo	24	Northern Illinois -3.5	Toledo	0
2013	11/20	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35	Northern Illinois -3	Northern Illinois	0
2012	11/14	Northern Illinois	31	Toledo	24
2011	11/01	Toledo	60	Northern Illinois	63
2010	11/09	Northern Illinois	65	Toledo	30
2009	10/17	Toledo	20	Northern Illinois	19
2008	10/18	Northern Illinois	38	Toledo	7
2007	10/27	Toledo	70	Northern Illinois	21
2006	11/07	Northern Illinois	13	Toledo	17
2005	11/16	Toledo	17	Northern Illinois	35
2004	11/09	Northern Illinois	17	Toledo	31
2003	11/15	Toledo	49	Northern Illinois	30
2001	09/29	Toledo	41	Northern Illinois	20
2000	11/03	Northern Illinois	24	Toledo	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	14	6	5 Overs
Northern Illinois	11	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	4 - 9	3 - 6	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 1	6 - 3

(#) NIU at (#) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NIU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#98	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#45
OffenseOff	#51	#97
DefenseDef	#128	#9
Spec TeamsST	#78	#100
TalentTal	#114	#86
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Northern Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#62	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northern Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#25	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#52	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Northern Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	NIU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#117
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	#17	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#72

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Toledo -13.0 (51.5)
Northern Illinois won at Toledo this year (22-20)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (42-3)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2024 (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)

NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Derrick Jackson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD