Northern Illinois at Toledo - 2021 Matchup Preview
Northern Illinois logo Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Saturday, October 9th 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -13 (51.5)
Northern Illinois 22 - Toledo: 20  (Mid-American)

 
Huskies (9 - 5) (9 - 4 - 1)
Coach Thomas Hammock (6 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 34 (29 - 37 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL is playing their 6th straight game
NIU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -9.5  (SP+ TOL -14)
Projected Score: NIU: 23 - TOL: 34 (57)
TOL Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NIU Travel: 267 miles, 1 hrs behind
Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (35 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Northern Illinois's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Northern Illinois at Georgia Tech+19.057.0W 22 - 21UY
Sat 9/11 Northern Illinois vs Wyoming+7.044.0L 43 - 50OY
Sat 9/18 Northern Illinois at Michigan+27.554.5L 10 - 63ON
Sat 9/25 Northern Illinois vs Maine-21.562.0W 41 - 14UY
Sat 10/2 Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan+0.062.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 10/9 Northern Illinois at Toledo+13.051.5W 22 - 20UY
Sat 10/16 Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green-9.044.5W 34 - 26ON
Sat 10/23 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan+6.056.0W 39 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3 Northern Illinois at Kent State+3.572.0L 47 - 52ON
Wed 11/10 Northern Illinois vs Ball State+3.059.5W 30 - 29UY
Wed 11/17 Northern Illinois at Buffalo-2.059.5W 33 - 27OY
Tue 11/23 Northern Illinois vs Western Michigan+6.560.0L 21 - 42ON
Sat 12/4 Northern Illinois vs Kent State+3.575.5W 41 - 23UY
Fri 12/17 Northern Illinois vs Coastal Carolina+11.063.0L 41 - 47OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule
Toledo's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Toledo vs Norfolk State-39.556.0W 49 - 10ON
Sat 9/11 Toledo at Notre Dame+16.555.0L 29 - 32OY
Sat 9/18 Toledo vs Colorado State-14.559.0L 6 - 22UN
Sat 9/25 Toledo at Ball State-4.556.5W 22 - 12UY
Sat 10/2 Toledo at Massachusetts-26.556.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 10/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.051.5L 20 - 22UN
Sat 10/16 Toledo at Central Michigan-5.053.0L 23 - 26UN
Sat 10/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan+1.554.5W 34 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-9.054.5L 49 - 52ON
Wed 11/10 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.550.0W 49 - 17OY
Tue 11/16 Toledo at Ohio-7.557.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/27 Toledo vs Akron-28.557.5W 49 - 14OY
Fri 12/17 Toledo vs Middle Tennessee-10.050.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU.3147%32.249%3.4424244%1874.18.3549%33.753%45%4.3745.31.30.9
TOL.2940%33.445%3.519636%2394.04.0936%21.836%37%3.2290.20.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NIU#86 (.16)42% (79)44% (72)3.25 (33)20440% (86)1793.39 (113)#11 (.06)38% (19)41% (52)35% (9)3.08 (12)42.81.21.1
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Offense1432.228.846.7%4.181.3234292421875.263%36%49%44%14%.31
TOL Defense1321.822.536.2%3.221.5 - - - - - 52%48%36%37%20%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NIU Defense1433.736.849%4.370.9 - - - - - 52%48%53%45%13%.35
TOL Offense1333.434.540.2%4.040.5214351962395.449%51%45%36%17%.29

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Northern Illinois1433:3022.937%84%545.31.30.94.41.4329.1
Toledo1328:2020.835%43%1090.20.51.56.82.9529.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Offense1463%49%46.4241.55.236.293.4477%10%1.06
TOL Defense1352%36% - - - - .073.0763%12%1.07
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NIU Defense1452%53% - - - - .373.6578%9%1.06
TOL Offense1349%45%36.3196.45.429.353.577%11%1.33

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Offense1436%44%14.625.4187.47.412.8158.381.631%34%.444%2
TOL Defense1348%37% - - - - - - 8.181.635%27%.248%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NIU Defense1448%45% - - - - - - 3.341.730%37%.494%2.1
TOL Offense1351%36%17.430239.1813.8223.241.836%25%.276%2.3

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: NR
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northern Illinois's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northern Illinois's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1  #98
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #62
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #117

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois:    Toledo: 5.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northern Illinois: -7.1   Toledo: 6.9




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 5.95 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9  #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.8
Defense: 33.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.8

Northern Illinois's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 34
Northern Illinois 23

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 33
Northern Illinois 20

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 35
Northern Illinois 26

Total Points: 61
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.5
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/05Toledo42Northern Illinois3Toledo -14.5Toledo42.5Over
202410/19Northern Illinois6Toledo13Northern Illinois -3Toledo42.5Under
202309/30Toledo35Northern Illinois33Toledo -13Northern Illinois48.0Over
202210/08Northern Illinois32Toledo52Toledo -6.5Toledo59.0Over
202110/09Toledo20Northern Illinois22Toledo -13Northern Illinois51.5Under
202012/05Northern Illinois24Toledo41Toledo -9Toledo53.5Over
201911/13Toledo28Northern Illinois31Toledo -2.5Northern Illinois54.5Over
201811/07Northern Illinois38Toledo15Northern Illinois -3.5Northern Illinois54.0Under
201711/02Toledo27Northern Illinois17Toledo -7.5Toledo56.5Under
201611/09Northern Illinois24Toledo31Toledo -7.5Northern Illinois69.5Under
201511/03Toledo27Northern Illinois32Toledo -7Northern Illinois62.0Under
201411/11Northern Illinois27Toledo24Northern Illinois -3.5Toledo0
201311/20Toledo17Northern Illinois35Northern Illinois -3Northern Illinois0
201211/14Northern Illinois31Toledo24
201111/01Toledo60Northern Illinois63
201011/09Northern Illinois65Toledo30
200910/17Toledo20Northern Illinois19
200810/18Northern Illinois38Toledo7
200710/27Toledo70Northern Illinois21
200611/07Northern Illinois13Toledo17
200511/16Toledo17Northern Illinois35
200411/09Northern Illinois17Toledo31
200311/15Toledo49Northern Illinois30
200109/29Toledo41Northern Illinois20
200011/03Northern Illinois24Toledo38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1465 Overs
Northern Illinois1176 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 134 - 93 - 61 - 3
Road Teams13 - 129 - 43 - 16 - 3

(#) NIU at (#) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNIUTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #98 #56
Perf GradeGrade #105 #45
OffenseOff #51 #97
DefenseDef #128 #9
Spec TeamsST #78 #100
TalentTal #114 #86
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Northern Illinois on Offense
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #51 #9
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #62 #21
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Northern Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #25 #5
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #52 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #4
Northern Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCat
NIU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #104 #12
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #68 #40
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCatTOL OffNIU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #128
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #65 #117
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffNIU Def
Run GameRun #17 #127
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #72
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCatTOL OffNIU Def
Pass GamePass #113 #121
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #127
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

NIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 74° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.004
Rematch from Week 6
Toledo -13.0 (51.5)
Northern Illinois won at Toledo this year (22-20)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Northern Illinois last year (13-6)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2023 (35-33)
Toledo beat Northern Illinois in 2022 (52-32)

  
NIU's OC Eric Eidsness (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Derrick Jackson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD