Toledo at Ohio - 2021 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 16th 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -7.5 (57.5)
Toledo 35 - Ohio: 23 (Mid-American)

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (34 - 20 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: -7 (SP+ TOL -18.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 33 - OHIO: 25 (58)
TOL Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 180 miles

Bobcats (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tim Albin (0 - 3)
Avg Score : 23 - 30 (25 - 32 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
OHIO Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Ohio's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Ohio vs Syracuse	-2.0	55.5	L 9 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/11	Ohio vs Duquesne	-28.5	49.0	L 26 - 28	O	N
Thu 9/16	Ohio at Louisiana	+18.5	56.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Ohio at Northwestern	+13.5	47.5	L 6 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/2	Ohio at Akron	-10.0	55.0	W 34 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Ohio vs Central Michigan	+5.0	58.0	L 27 - 30	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Ohio at Buffalo	+7.5	54.5	L 26 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Ohio vs Kent State	+5.0	68.5	L 27 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Ohio vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	54.5	W 35 - 33	O	Y
Tue 11/9	Ohio at Eastern Michigan	+6.0	61.5	W 34 - 26	U	Y
Tue 11/16	Ohio vs Toledo	+7.5	57.5	L 23 - 35	O	N
Fri 11/26	Ohio at Bowling Green	-6.0	48.0	L 10 - 21	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.29	40%	33.4	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	21.8	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5
OHIO	.22	45%	22.6	47%	3.49	187	43%	184	3.85	.27	47%	30.3	45%	50%	4.01	58.6	1.3	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	#111 (.11)	41% (95)		38% (120)	2.66 (121)	111	44% (46)	227	3.55 (99)	#20 (.09)	40% (43)		42% (60)	38% (35)	3.87 (79)	46.7	1.3	1.3
OHIO	#40 (.24)	46% (30)		47% (35)	3.1 (52)	214	45% (35)	193	4.15 (47)	#23 (.1)	37% (10)		34% (3)	40% (57)	3.79 (68)	44.9	1.6	1.5

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	13	33.4	33.8	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29
OHIO Defense	12	30.3	31.5	47%	4.01	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	50%	12%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	13	21.8	19.5	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09
OHIO Offense	12	22.6	24.5	44.9%	3.85	1.3	20	371	187	184	5.2	56%	44%	47%	43%	16%	.22

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4
Ohio	12	29:46	20.2	36%	65%	6.2	58.6	1.3	0.8	4.6	1.3	1	29

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33
OHIO Defense	12	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.33	64%	8%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07
OHIO Offense	12	56%	47%	36.2	187.3	5.2	20	.28	3.49	71%	11%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3
OHIO Defense	12	49%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.35	1.4	26%	33%	.39	4%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2
OHIO Offense	12	44%	43%	16.7	26.1	184.1	7.1	11.1	11	8	.18	1.3	31%	30%	.31	5%	1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Ohio: -3.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9 Ohio: -11.6

Ohio's Power Ratings
Ohio's Power Rating: -3.3 NR
Ohio's Offense Rating: NR
Ohio's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ohio's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ohio's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.6 #109
Ohio's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #89
Ohio's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 19.5

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Ohio 25

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Toledo 35
Ohio 28

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Ohio 22

Total Points: 54

Ohio Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.5

Ohio's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/20	Toledo	7	Ohio	24	Toledo -1.5	Ohio	47.0	Under
2022	12/03	Ohio	7	Toledo	17	Toledo -3.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2021	11/16	Ohio	23	Toledo	35	Toledo -7.5	Toledo	57.5	Over
2017	11/08	Ohio	38	Toledo	10	Toledo -3	Ohio	63.5	Under
2016	10/27	Toledo	26	Ohio	31	Toledo -17.5	Ohio	57.0	Push
2010	09/11	Ohio	13	Toledo	20
2007	10/20	Toledo	43	Ohio	40
2005	11/04	Ohio	21	Toledo	30
2004	10/16	Toledo	31	Ohio	13
2001	10/06	Ohio	41	Toledo	48

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ohio	3	3	1 Overs
Toledo	7	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 7	1 - 4	0 - 2	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 3	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 0

(#) TOL at (#) OHIO

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	OHIO
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#109
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#109
OffenseOff	#97	#86
DefenseDef	#9	#105
Spec TeamsST	#100	#110
TalentTal	#86	#117
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Ohio Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	OHIO Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#115
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	OHIO Def
Run GameRun	#17	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#131

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	OHIO Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#60
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#86
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ohio on Offense


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#86	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#89	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ohio Run Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#72	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Ohio Pass Game


CategoryCat	OHIO Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#49	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#84	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
OHIO 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Peden Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 40° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Toledo 7.5 (57.5)
Toledo won at Ohio this year (35-23)

Previous Matchups
Ohio beat Toledo last year (24-7)
Toledo beat Ohio in 2022 (17-7)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

OHIO's OC Scott Ishpording (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ohio's Full Roster

OHIO's DC Pete Germano (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD