Toledo at Massachusetts - 2021 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets at Massachusetts Minutemen  Massachusetts logo
Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (12:00 PM EDT)
Toledo -26.5 (56.5)
Toledo 45 - Massachusetts: 7

 
Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS is playing their 5th straight game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -15.5  (SP+ TOL -36)
Projected Score: TOL: 31 - UMASS: 13 (44)
TOL Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
TOL Travel: 570 miles
Minutemen (1 - 11) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Walt Bell (1 - 18)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Toledo vs Norfolk State-39.556.0W 49 - 10ON
Sat 9/11 Toledo at Notre Dame+16.555.0L 29 - 32OY
Sat 9/18 Toledo vs Colorado State-14.559.0L 6 - 22UN
Sat 9/25 Toledo at Ball State-4.556.5W 22 - 12UY
Sat 10/2 Toledo at Massachusetts-26.556.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 10/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.051.5L 20 - 22UN
Sat 10/16 Toledo at Central Michigan-5.053.0L 23 - 26UN
Sat 10/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan+1.554.5W 34 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-9.054.5L 49 - 52ON
Wed 11/10 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.550.0W 49 - 17OY
Tue 11/16 Toledo at Ohio-7.557.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/27 Toledo vs Akron-28.557.5W 49 - 14OY
Fri 12/17 Toledo vs Middle Tennessee-10.050.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Massachusetts at Pittsburgh+38.056.0L 7 - 51ON
Sat 9/11 Massachusetts vs Boston College+39.057.0L 28 - 45OY
Sat 9/18 Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+22.056.5L 28 - 42OY
Sat 9/25 Massachusetts at Coastal Carolina+36.066.0L 3 - 53UN
Sat 10/2 Massachusetts vs Toledo+26.556.5L 7 - 45UN
Sat 10/9 Massachusetts vs UConn+3.057.0W 27 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Massachusetts at Florida State+35.059.0L 3 - 59ON
Sat 10/30 Massachusetts at Liberty+35.556.0L 17 - 62ON
Sat 11/6 Massachusetts vs Rhode Island-2.555.5L 22 - 35ON
Sat 11/13 Massachusetts vs Maine+6.058.5L 10 - 35UN
Sat 11/20 Massachusetts at Army+37.556.0L 17 - 33UY
Sat 11/27 Massachusetts at New Mexico State+7.058.5L 27 - 44ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.2646%30.841%2.6716849%3263.57.1139%13.336%43%3.3374.821.5
UMASS-.1125%11.121%2.186731%1220.56.3952%38.652%51%3.79541.80.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense630.817.345.6%3.572274941683264.247%53%41%49%19%.26
UMASS Defense438.634.751.5%3.790.5 - - - - - 53%47%52%51%17%.39
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense613.316.739.3%3.331.5 - - - - - 51%49%36%43%18%.11
UMASS Offense411.112.825.5%0.561.811189671222.351%49%21%31%21%-.11

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo633:3327.248%46%9.574.821.561.8132.4
Massachusetts426:4510.526%44%5.3541.80.57.82.3025.1
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense647%41%40.51684.27.022.6768%13%0.82
UMASS Defense453%52% - - - - .323.0488%13%1.15
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense651%36% - - - - -.042.6342%11%0.96
UMASS Offense451%21%29.367.32.30-.222.1838%15%1.06

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense653%49%23.836.5325.88.913.7187.471.832%42%.536%2
UMASS Defense447%51% - - - - - - 0.461.631%39%.415%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense649%43% - - - - - - 4.261.531%30%.287%1.9
UMASS Offense449%31%13.525121.54.9915.011.538%21%.116%1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9  #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Massachusetts: -12.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9   Massachusetts: -29.3




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -12.15 NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Massachusetts's 2021 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -29.3  #131
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #127
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.9  #131

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 31
Massachusetts 13

Projected Total Points: 44
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2021 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Toledo38Massachusetts23Toledo -17.5Massachusetts50.5Over
202310/07Massachusetts24Toledo41Toledo -19Massachusetts55.5Over
202209/10Toledo55Massachusetts10Toledo -28Toledo49.0Over
202110/02Massachusetts7Toledo45Toledo -26.5Toledo56.5Under
201510/24Massachusetts35Toledo51Toledo -9.5Toledo61.0Over
201410/25Toledo42Massachusetts35Toledo -17.5Massachusetts0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts034 Overs
Toledo631 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 32 - 41 - 21 - 2
Road Teams3 - 34 - 22 - 12 - 1

(#) TOL at (#) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLUMASS
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #56 #131
Perf GradeGrade #45 #136
OffenseOff #97 #133
DefenseDef #9 #134
Spec TeamsST #100 #132
TalentTal #86 #126
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #134
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #65 #131
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
Run GameRun #17 #128
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #117
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePass #113 #135
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #118 #121
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Massachusetts on Offense
CategoryCatUMASS OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #133 #9
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #127 #21
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Massachusetts Run Game
CategoryCat
UMASS OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #63 #5
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #4
Massachusetts Pass Game
CategoryCatUMASS OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #136 #12
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #104 #40
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'21 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Toledo 26.5 (56.5)
Toledo won at Massachusetts this year (45-7)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)

  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UMASS's OC Angelo Mirando (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Tommy Restivo (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD