Buffalo at Ball State - 2021 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 23rd 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Ball State -6 (59.5)
Ball State 20 - Buffalo: 3 (Mid-American)

Bulls (4 - 8) (3 - 8 - 1)
Coach Maurice Linguist (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 2nd straight Home Game
BALL is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ BUFF -1.5)
Projected Score: BUFF: 25 - BALL: 22 (47)
BALL Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
BUFF Travel: 393 miles

Cardinals (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (23 - 36)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BUFF Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Buffalo vs Wagner	-44.0	54.5	W 69 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Buffalo at Nebraska	+13.5	54.0	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/18	Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina	+14.0	58.0	L 25 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Buffalo at Old Dominion	-13.0	50.5	W 35 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/2	Buffalo vs Western Michigan	+7.0	59.5	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Buffalo at Kent State	+7.0	66.0	L 38 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/16	Buffalo vs Ohio	-7.5	54.5	W 27 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Buffalo at Akron	-13.5	58.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Buffalo vs Bowling Green	-13.5	51.5	L 44 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/9	Buffalo at Miami (OH)	+7.0	58.0	L 18 - 45	O	N
Wed 11/17	Buffalo vs Northern Illinois	+2.0	59.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Tue 11/23	Buffalo at Ball State	+6.0	59.5	L 3 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule

Ball State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Ball State vs Western Illinois	-31.0	58.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/11	Ball State at Penn State	+23.0	58.0	L 13 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/18	Ball State at Wyoming	+6.5	53.5	L 12 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/25	Ball State vs Toledo	+4.5	56.5	L 12 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/2	Ball State vs Army	+10.5	46.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Ball State at Western Michigan	+13.0	57.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	-1.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	-3.5	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Ball State at Akron	-20.0	58.0	W 31 - 25	U	N
Wed 11/10	Ball State at Northern Illinois	-3.0	59.5	L 29 - 30	U	N
Wed 11/17	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+2.5	57.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Tue 11/23	Ball State vs Buffalo	-6.0	59.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Ball State vs Georgia State	+6.0	52.5	L 20 - 51	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF	.37	49%	24	49%	3.52	288	50%	191	4.79	.11	40%	23.5	41%	39%	3.15	52.7	0.9	1.4
BALL	.21	47%	15.8	46%	3.16	178	49%	269	3.65	.14	46%	29.8	44%	48%	3.13	48.9	1.1	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BUFF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Offense	7	24	23.2	49.4%	4.79	0.9	22	478	288	191	6.7	64%	36%	49%	50%	9%	.37
BALL Defense	8	29.8	21.6	46.4%	3.13	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	45%	55%	44%	48%	19%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BUFF Defense	7	23.5	22.6	39.7%	3.15	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	39%	16%	.11
BALL Offense	8	15.8	24.4	47.2%	3.65	1.1	24	447	178	269	3.9	54%	46%	46%	49%	15%	.21

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Buffalo	7	30:33	22	48%	54%	6	52.7	0.9	1.4	5.3	2.9	1	29.5
Ball State	8	29:53	24.4	47%	54%	5.8	48.9	1.1	2.3	7	1.9	2	32.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense	7	64%	49%	43	287.9	6.7	32	.37	3.52	80%	4%	1.27
BALL Defense	8	45%	44%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.74	59%	12%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense	7	52%	41%	-	-	-	-	.06	3.25	70%	10%	0.75
BALL Offense	8	54%	46%	45.8	178	3.9	15	.12	3.16	66%	9%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense	7	36%	50%	13.9	22.3	190.6	8.6	13.8	7	4	.37	1.4	27%	37%	.5	5%	1.8
BALL Defense	8	55%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.26	1.4	27%	32%	.33	7%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense	7	48%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.16	1.6	30%	21%	.08	7%	2.2
BALL Offense	8	46%	49%	20.5	31.4	269.3	8.6	13.1	17	6	.32	1.5	27%	38%	.42	6%	2.1

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: NR
Buffalo's Offense Rating: NR
Buffalo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Buffalo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Buffalo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.5 #104
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #90
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #106

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: Ball State: -3.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -9.5 Ball State: -11.2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -3.1 NR
Ball State's Offense Rating: NR
Ball State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Ball State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ball State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #108
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #106
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Buffalo 25
Ball State 22

Projected Total Points: 47

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/12	Buffalo	51	Ball State	48	Buffalo -3.5	Ball State	55.5	Over
2021	11/23	Ball State	20	Buffalo	3	Ball State -6	Ball State	59.5	Under
2020	12/18	Buffalo	28	Ball State	38	Buffalo -13	Ball State	69.5	Under
2017	11/16	Ball State	24	Buffalo	40	Buffalo -18.5	Ball State	54.5	Over
2016	10/15	Buffalo	21	Ball State	31	Ball State -9	Ball State	52.5	Under
2011	09/17	Ball State	28	Buffalo	25
2010	11/12	Buffalo	3	Ball State	20
2008	12/05	Buffalo	42	Ball State	24
2007	09/29	Ball State	49	Buffalo	14
2006	10/07	Buffalo	25	Ball State	55
2000	10/20	Buffalo	35	Ball State	44

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	8	5	2 Overs
Buffalo	3	0	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	5 - 6	2 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 5	3 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 1

(#) BUFF at (#) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BUFF	BALL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#104	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#96	#108
OffenseOff	#99	#114
DefenseDef	#72	#83
Spec TeamsST	#89	#45
TalentTal	#124	#116
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Buffalo Injury Report

Ball State Injury Report

Buffalo on Offense


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Buffalo Run Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#70	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#25

Buffalo Pass Game


CategoryCat	BUFF Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#72
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#106	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
Run GameRun	#116	#27
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#16

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	BUFF Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#132
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#91	#8
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Ball State -6.0 (59.5)
Ball State won vs Buffalo this year (20-3)

Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Ball State in 2024 (51-48)

BUFF's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BALL's OC Kevin Lynch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD