Ball State at Western Michigan - 2021 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos

Saturday, October 9th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -13 (57.5)
Ball State 45 - Western Michigan: 20 (Mid-American)

Cardinals (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach Mike Neu (23 - 36)
Avg Score : 24 - 28 (28 - 33 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WMU is playing their 6th straight game
BALL is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -8.5 (SP+ WMU -12)
Projected Score: BALL: 19 - WMU: 32 (51)
WMU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
BALL Travel: 143 miles

Broncos (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Lester (26 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (35 - 27 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
WMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Ball State vs Western Illinois	-31.0	58.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/11	Ball State at Penn State	+23.0	58.0	L 13 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/18	Ball State at Wyoming	+6.5	53.5	L 12 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/25	Ball State vs Toledo	+4.5	56.5	L 12 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/2	Ball State vs Army	+10.5	46.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Ball State at Western Michigan	+13.0	57.5	W 45 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	-1.5	54.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	-3.5	53.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Ball State at Akron	-20.0	58.0	W 31 - 25	U	N
Wed 11/10	Ball State at Northern Illinois	-3.0	59.5	L 29 - 30	U	N
Wed 11/17	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+2.5	57.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Tue 11/23	Ball State vs Buffalo	-6.0	59.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Ball State vs Georgia State	+6.0	52.5	L 20 - 51	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Western Michigan at Michigan	+16.5	65.5	L 14 - 47	U	N
Sat 9/11	Western Michigan vs Illinois State	-12.5	56.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Western Michigan at Pittsburgh	+14.0	59.0	W 44 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Western Michigan vs San José State	-2.5	61.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Western Michigan at Buffalo	-7.0	59.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/9	Western Michigan vs Ball State	-13.0	57.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/16	Western Michigan vs Kent State	-7.0	68.5	W 64 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Western Michigan at Toledo	-1.5	54.5	L 15 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3	Western Michigan vs Central Michigan	-9.0	64.5	L 30 - 42	O	N
Tue 11/9	Western Michigan vs Akron	-24.5	62.0	W 45 - 40	O	N
Tue 11/16	Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan	-6.0	66.0	L 21 - 22	U	N
Tue 11/23	Western Michigan at Northern Illinois	-6.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Mon 12/27	Western Michigan vs Nevada	-7.0	56.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	.13	41%	24.1	41%	3.03	130	41%	208	3.68	.25	49%	28.4	47%	54%	3.93	40.8	0.9	1.5
WMU	.31	50%	32.5	52%	3.54	214	47%	254	4.16	.22	39%	28.2	43%	35%	3.72	58.9	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3
WMU	#43 (.24)	45% (33)		45% (59)	3.05 (62)	184	46% (27)	187	4.11 (49)	#122 (.29)	49% (128)		48% (115)	51% (132)	4.38 (119)	39.2	1	1.6

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	13	24.1	28	40.5%	3.68	0.9	19	337	130	208	3.8	48%	51%	41%	41%	15%	.13
WMU Defense	13	28.2	26.8	38.9%	3.72	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	43%	35%	22%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	13	28.4	32.5	49.4%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	54%	13%	.25
WMU Offense	13	32.5	35	49.9%	4.16	1.2	25	468	214	254	4.7	58%	42%	52%	47%	13%	.31

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	13	27:39	19.1	40%	52%	4.9	40.8	0.9	1.5	5.3	1.8	1	30.5
Western Michigan	13	35:17	24.8	46%	46%	6.8	58.9	1.2	1.3	7.5	3.3	2	28.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	13	48%	41%	34.2	129.6	3.8	17	.14	3.03	75%	9%	1.04
WMU Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.21	2.82	71%	16%	1.17

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	13	54%	47%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.27	78%	9%	0.91
WMU Offense	13	58%	52%	45.4	214.1	4.7	31	.28	3.54	67%	8%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	13	51%	41%	20.5	33.8	207.6	6.1	10.1	18	7	.14	1.4	33%	29%	.17	6%	1.8
WMU Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.23	1.8	35%	26%	.22	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	13	45%	54%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.4	1.3	27%	31%	.27	5%	1.9
WMU Offense	13	42%	47%	17.9	28.3	253.6	9	14.2	23	6	.4	1.7	25%	35%	.47	6%	2.2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: NR
Ball State's Offense Rating: NR
Ball State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Ball State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ball State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.2 #108
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.6 #106
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: Western Michigan: 2.8

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -11.2 Western Michigan: 0.6

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: 2.8 NR
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Western Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Western Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.6 #76
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1 #39
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #91

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 24.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 28
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.5

Ball State's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Western Michigan 32
Ball State 19

Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Michigan 33
Ball State 11

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Western Michigan 32
Ball State 27

Total Points: 59

Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 28.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

Western Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Western Michigan	42	Ball State	0	Western Michigan -9.5	Western Michigan	43.5	Under
2024	10/05	Ball State	42	Western Michigan	45	Western Michigan -10	Ball State	57.5	Over
2023	09/30	Western Michigan	42	Ball State	24	Western Michigan -1.5	Western Michigan	50.0	Over
2022	09/10	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	37	Western Michigan -6.5	Western Michigan	51.5	Over
2021	10/09	Western Michigan	20	Ball State	45	Western Michigan -13	Ball State	57.5	Over
2020	12/12	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	27	Western Michigan -2	Ball State	66.5	Under
2019	11/05	Western Michigan	35	Ball State	31	Western Michigan -6.5	Ball State	64.0	Over
2018	11/13	Ball State	42	Western Michigan	41	Western Michigan -10	Ball State	58.0	Over
2017	09/30	Western Michigan	55	Ball State	3	Western Michigan -13	Western Michigan	53.5	Over
2016	11/01	Ball State	20	Western Michigan	52	Western Michigan -16	Western Michigan	64.5	Over
2015	11/05	Western Michigan	54	Ball State	7	Western Michigan -13.5	Western Michigan	62.0	Under
2014	10/11	Ball State	38	Western Michigan	42	Ball State -6	Western Michigan	0
2013	10/19	Western Michigan	17	Ball State	38	Ball State -21	NA	0
2012	10/13	Ball State	30	Western Michigan	24
2011	10/29	Western Michigan	45	Ball State	35
2010	10/09	Ball State	16	Western Michigan	45
2009	11/24	Western Michigan	17	Ball State	22
2008	11/25	Ball State	45	Western Michigan	22
2007	10/20	Western Michigan	23	Ball State	27
2006	10/21	Ball State	27	Western Michigan	41
2005	10/08	Western Michigan	57	Ball State	60
2004	09/25	Ball State	41	Western Michigan	14
2003	11/08	Western Michigan	28	Ball State	20
2002	11/02	Ball State	17	Western Michigan	7
2001	11/24	Western Michigan	31	Ball State	35
2000	11/03	Ball State	3	Western Michigan	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Michigan	14	7	8 Overs
Ball State	12	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 5	4 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	13 - 13	5 - 7	2 - 3	3 - 4

(#) BALL at (#) WMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	WMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#108	#76
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#45
OffenseOff	#114	#18
DefenseDef	#83	#88
Spec TeamsST	#45	#134
TalentTal	#116	#106
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Ball State Injury Report

Western Michigan Injury Report

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#114	#88
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#106	#91
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
Run GameRun	#116	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#108	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#121

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	WMU Def
Pass GamePass	#93	#116
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#91	#7
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Western Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#83
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#39	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#67	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#25

Western Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	WMU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#47	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Waldo Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 73° - Wind: 7 mph
Rain: 0.008

Rematch from Week 6
Western Michigan -13.0 (57.5)
Ball State won at Western Michigan this year (45-20)

Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Ball State last year (45-42)
Western Michigan beat Ball State in 2023 (42-24)
Western Michigan beat Ball State in 2022 (37-30)

BALL's OC Kevin Lynch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

WMU's OC Mike Bath (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD