Western Michigan at Toledo - 2021 Matchup Preview
Western Michigan logo Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo RocketsToledo logo
Saturday, October 23rd 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Michigan -1.5 (54.5)
Toledo 34 - Western Michigan: 15  (Mid-American)

 
Broncos (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Tim Lester (26 - 21)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (27 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
TOL is playing their 8th straight game
WMU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: -5.5  (SP+ TOL -6)
Projected Score: WMU: 25 - TOL: 27 (52)
WMU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
WMU Travel: 111 miles
Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (35 - 23 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Western Michigan at Michigan+16.565.5L 14 - 47UN
Sat 9/11 Western Michigan vs Illinois State-12.556.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 9/18 Western Michigan at Pittsburgh+14.059.0W 44 - 41OY
Sat 9/25 Western Michigan vs San José State-2.561.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/2 Western Michigan at Buffalo-7.059.5W 24 - 17UN
Sat 10/9 Western Michigan vs Ball State-13.057.5L 20 - 45ON
Sat 10/16 Western Michigan vs Kent State-7.068.5W 64 - 31OY
Sat 10/23 Western Michigan at Toledo-1.554.5L 15 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3 Western Michigan vs Central Michigan-9.064.5L 30 - 42ON
Tue 11/9 Western Michigan vs Akron-24.562.0W 45 - 40ON
Tue 11/16 Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan-6.066.0L 21 - 22UN
Tue 11/23 Western Michigan at Northern Illinois-6.560.0W 42 - 21OY
Mon 12/27 Western Michigan vs Nevada-7.056.0W 52 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Toledo's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Toledo vs Norfolk State-39.556.0W 49 - 10ON
Sat 9/11 Toledo at Notre Dame+16.555.0L 29 - 32OY
Sat 9/18 Toledo vs Colorado State-14.559.0L 6 - 22UN
Sat 9/25 Toledo at Ball State-4.556.5W 22 - 12UY
Sat 10/2 Toledo at Massachusetts-26.556.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 10/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.051.5L 20 - 22UN
Sat 10/16 Toledo at Central Michigan-5.053.0L 23 - 26UN
Sat 10/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan+1.554.5W 34 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-9.054.5L 49 - 52ON
Wed 11/10 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.550.0W 49 - 17OY
Tue 11/16 Toledo at Ohio-7.557.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/27 Toledo vs Akron-28.557.5W 49 - 14OY
Fri 12/17 Toledo vs Middle Tennessee-10.050.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU.3150%32.552%3.5421447%2544.16.2239%28.243%35%3.7258.91.21.3
TOL.2940%33.445%3.519636%2394.04.0936%21.836%37%3.2290.20.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU#43 (.24)45% (33)45% (59)3.05 (62)18446% (27)1874.11 (49)#122 (.29)49% (128)48% (115)51% (132)4.38 (119)39.211.6
TOL#111 (.11)41% (95)38% (120)2.66 (121)11144% (46)2273.55 (99)#20 (.09)40% (43)42% (60)38% (35)3.87 (79)46.71.31.3



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Offense1332.526.749.9%4.161.2254682142544.758%42%52%47%13%.31
TOL Defense1321.822.536.2%3.221.5 - - - - - 52%48%36%37%20%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Defense1328.230.338.9%3.721.3 - - - - - 51%49%43%35%22%.22
TOL Offense1333.434.540.2%4.040.5214351962395.449%51%45%36%17%.29

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Michigan1335:1724.846%46%6.858.91.21.37.53.3228.2
Toledo1328:2020.835%43%1090.20.51.56.82.9529.4
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Offense1358%52%45.4214.14.731.283.5467%8%0.93
TOL Defense1352%36% - - - - .073.0763%12%1.07
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Defense1351%43% - - - - .212.8271%16%1.17
TOL Offense1349%45%36.3196.45.429.353.577%11%1.33

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Offense1342%47%17.928.3253.6914.2236.41.725%35%.476%2.2
TOL Defense1348%37% - - - - - - 8.181.635%27%.248%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Defense1349%35% - - - - - - 4.231.835%26%.226%2
TOL Offense1351%36%17.430239.1813.8223.241.836%25%.276%2.3

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: NR
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #106
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Western Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Western Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.6  #76
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.1  #39
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #91

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan:    Toledo: 5.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: 0.6   Toledo: 6.9




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 5.95 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9  #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.3

Western Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 27
Western Michigan 25

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Michigan 24
Toledo 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Entire Season
Toledo 32
Western Michigan 26

Total Points: 58
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 33.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.5
Defense: 21.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Michigan14Toledo13Toledo -13.5Western Michigan48.5Under
202309/23Toledo49Western Michigan31Toledo -21.5Western Michigan52.5Over
202211/25Western Michigan20Toledo14Toledo -8.5Western Michigan50.5Under
202110/23Toledo34Western Michigan15Western Michigan -1.5Toledo54.5Under
202011/11Western Michigan41Toledo38Western Michigan -1.5Western Michigan58.5Over
201910/05Toledo31Western Michigan24Toledo -1.5Toledo74.0Under
201810/25Western Michigan24Toledo51Western Michigan -4Toledo69.0Over
201711/24Toledo37Western Michigan10Toledo -12Toledo62.0Under
201611/25Western Michigan55Toledo35Western Michigan -9.5Western Michigan71.5Over
201511/27Toledo30Western Michigan35Toledo -7Western Michigan58.0Over
201410/04Western Michigan19Toledo20Toledo -10Western Michigan0
201310/05Toledo47Western Michigan20Toledo -19Toledo0
201209/29Western Michigan17Toledo37
201111/08Toledo66Western Michigan63
201009/18Western Michigan24Toledo37
200910/10Toledo26Western Michigan58
200811/15Western Michigan27Toledo17
200709/29Toledo28Western Michigan42
200609/09Western Michigan31Toledo10
200509/10Toledo56Western Michigan23
200410/09Western Michigan33Toledo59
200311/22Toledo34Western Michigan17
200111/06Toledo41Western Michigan35
200009/22Western Michigan21Toledo14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo1455 Overs
Western Michigan1075 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams16 - 89 - 35 - 34 - 0
Road Teams8 - 163 - 90 - 43 - 5

(#) WMU at (#) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWMUTOL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #76 #56
Perf GradeGrade #45 #45
OffenseOff #18 #97
DefenseDef #88 #9
Spec TeamsST #134 #100
TalentTal #106 #86
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Western Michigan on Offense
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #18 #9
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #39 #21
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Western Michigan Run Game
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #67 #5
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #24 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #4
Western Michigan Pass Game
CategoryCat
WMU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #47 #12
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #26 #40
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCatTOL OffWMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #88
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #65 #91
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffWMU Def
Run GameRun #17 #88
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #121
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCatTOL OffWMU Def
Pass GamePass #113 #116
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #7
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

WMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'21 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 54° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 8
Western Michigan 1.5 (54.5)
Toledo won vs Western Michigan this year (34-15)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Western Michigan in 2023 (49-31)
Western Michigan beat Toledo in 2022 (20-14)

  
WMU's OC Mike Bath (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Lou Esposito (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD