Toledo at Central Michigan - 2021 Matchup Preview

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas

Saturday, October 16th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Toledo -5 (53.0)
Central Michigan 26 - Toledo: 23 (Mid-American)

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CMU is playing their 7th straight game
TOL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ TOL -8)
Projected Score: TOL: 22 - CMU: 21 (43)
TOL Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TOL Travel: 145 miles

Chippewas (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (12 - 11)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Central Michigan at Missouri	+13.5	59.0	L 24 - 34	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Central Michigan vs Robert Morris	-37.5	53.5	W 45 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Central Michigan at LSU	+19.5	61.0	L 21 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/25	Central Michigan vs Florida International	-12.0	55.0	W 31 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/2	Central Michigan at Miami (OH)	-2.5	56.5	L 17 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/9	Central Michigan at Ohio	-5.0	58.0	W 30 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/16	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+5.0	53.0	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	-6.0	56.0	L 38 - 39	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/3	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+9.0	64.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Wed 11/10	Central Michigan vs Kent State	-2.5	76.5	W 54 - 30	O	Y
Wed 11/17	Central Michigan at Ball State	-2.5	57.0	W 37 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/26	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-8.5	64.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 12/31	Central Michigan vs Washington State	+5.5	56.0	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 12/31	Central Michigan vs Boise State	+7.5	55.5

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.26	46%	30.8	41%	2.67	168	49%	326	3.57	.11	39%	13.3	36%	43%	3.33	74.8	2	1.5
CMU	.14	41%	22.5	44%	2.83	219	37%	202	3.07	.15	41%	23.5	40%	42%	3.34	58.5	1.5	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	6	30.8	17.3	45.6%	3.57	2	27	494	168	326	4.2	47%	53%	41%	49%	19%	.26
CMU Defense	6	23.5	15.2	40.8%	3.34	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	40%	42%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	6	13.3	16.7	39.3%	3.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	36%	43%	18%	.11
CMU Offense	6	22.5	30.4	41%	3.07	1.5	20	421	219	202	5.1	57%	43%	44%	37%	16%	.14

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	6	33:33	27.2	48%	46%	9.5	74.8	2	1.5	6	1.8	1	32.4
Central Michigan	6	28:47	19.7	28%	58%	5.8	58.5	1.5	2.3	6.7	3.2	0	31.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	6	47%	41%	40.5	168	4.2	7	.02	2.67	68%	13%	0.82
CMU Defense	6	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	-.01	2.52	56%	12%	0.85

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	6	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.63	42%	11%	0.96
CMU Offense	6	57%	44%	43.2	218.5	5.1	15	.12	2.83	64%	11%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	6	53%	49%	23.8	36.5	325.8	8.9	13.7	18	7	.47	1.8	32%	42%	.53	6%	2
CMU Defense	6	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.33	1.9	33%	39%	.57	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	6	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.26	1.5	31%	30%	.28	7%	1.9
CMU Offense	6	43%	37%	17.7	28.8	202.3	7	11.5	6	4	.16	1.5	29%	22%	.22	4%	2.6

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Central Michigan: 2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9 Central Michigan: -1.0

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: 2 NR
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: NR
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Central Michigan's 2021 Expected Record: -
Central Michigan's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #84
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #68
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #93

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 22
Central Michigan 21

Projected Total Points: 43

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2021 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Central Michigan	3	Toledo	21	Toledo -11.5	Toledo	46.5	Under
2024	11/12	Toledo	37	Central Michigan	10	Toledo -15	Toledo	52.5	Under
2023	11/24	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	32	Toledo -12.5	Toledo	54.5	Under
2022	10/01	Toledo	38	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	56.0	Under
2021	10/16	Central Michigan	26	Toledo	23	Toledo -5	Central Michigan	53.0	Under
2020	12/12	Toledo	24	Central Michigan	23	Toledo -10	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2019	11/29	Central Michigan	49	Toledo	7	Central Michigan -14.5	Central Michigan	64.0	Under
2018	11/23	Toledo	51	Central Michigan	13	Toledo -19	Toledo	58.0	Over
2017	10/14	Central Michigan	10	Toledo	30	Toledo -9.5	Toledo	55.0	Under
2016	10/22	Toledo	31	Central Michigan	17	Toledo -10	Toledo	61.5	Under
2015	11/10	Central Michigan	23	Toledo	28	Toledo -6	Central Michigan	54.5	Under
2014	09/27	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	28	Toledo -15	Central Michigan	0
2013	09/21	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	38	Toledo -14	Toledo	0
2012	10/06	Toledo	50	Central Michigan	35
2011	11/18	Central Michigan	17	Toledo	44
2010	11/26	Toledo	42	Central Michigan	31
2009	11/11	Central Michigan	56	Toledo	28
2008	10/25	Toledo	23	Central Michigan	24
2007	09/08	Central Michigan	52	Toledo	31
2006	10/07	Toledo	20	Central Michigan	42
2005	10/29	Central Michigan	21	Toledo	17
2004	10/23	Toledo	27	Central Michigan	22
2003	10/18	Central Michigan	13	Toledo	31
2002	11/09	Toledo	44	Central Michigan	17
2001	09/22	Central Michigan	28	Toledo	52
2000	09/29	Toledo	41	Central Michigan	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	7	5	1 Overs
Toledo	19	8	10 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	7 - 6	5 - 2	2 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 16	6 - 7	4 - 2	2 - 5

(#) TOL at (#) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	CMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#84
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#32
OffenseOff	#97	#29
DefenseDef	#9	#32
Spec TeamsST	#100	#70
TalentTal	#86	#123
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Central Michigan Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#32
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#93
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#17	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#48

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#16
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Central Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#29	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Central Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#46	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#14	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Central Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#78	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'21 Profile: Remains Average G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Toledo 5.0 (53.0)
Central Michigan won vs Toledo this year (26-23)

Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Central Michigan last year (21-3)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2024 (37-10)
Toledo beat Central Michigan in 2023 (32-17)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

CMU's OC Kevin Barbay (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD