Toledo at Notre Dame - 2021 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo   Toledo Rockets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish  Notre Dame logo
Saturday, September 11th 2021 (2:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -16.5 (55.0)
Notre Dame 32 - Toledo: 29

 
Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -8  (SP+ ND -11)
Projected Score: TOL: 21 - ND: 29 (50)
ND Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
TOL Travel: 135 miles
Fighting Irish (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (84 - 38)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (45 - 18 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Toledo vs Norfolk State-39.556.0W 49 - 10ON
Sat 9/11 Toledo at Notre Dame+16.555.0L 29 - 32OY
Sat 9/18 Toledo vs Colorado State-14.559.0L 6 - 22UN
Sat 9/25 Toledo at Ball State-4.556.5W 22 - 12UY
Sat 10/2 Toledo at Massachusetts-26.556.5W 45 - 7UY
Sat 10/9 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.051.5L 20 - 22UN
Sat 10/16 Toledo at Central Michigan-5.053.0L 23 - 26UN
Sat 10/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan+1.554.5W 34 - 15UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-9.054.5L 49 - 52ON
Wed 11/10 Toledo at Bowling Green-10.550.0W 49 - 17OY
Tue 11/16 Toledo at Ohio-7.557.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/27 Toledo vs Akron-28.557.5W 49 - 14OY
Fri 12/17 Toledo vs Middle Tennessee-10.050.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/5 Notre Dame at Florida State-7.053.5W 41 - 38ON
Sat 9/11 Notre Dame vs Toledo-16.555.0W 32 - 29ON
Sat 9/18 Notre Dame vs Purdue-7.558.0W 27 - 13UY
Sat 9/25 Notre Dame vs Wisconsin+6.043.5W 41 - 13OY
Sat 10/2 Notre Dame vs Cincinnati+2.550.0L 13 - 24UN
Sat 10/9 Notre Dame at Virginia Tech+1.046.5W 32 - 29OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23 Notre Dame vs USC-8.059.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 10/30 Notre Dame vs North Carolina-3.563.0W 44 - 34OY
Sat 11/6 Notre Dame vs Navy-21.047.5W 34 - 6UY
Sat 11/13 Notre Dame at Virginia-7.562.5W 28 - 3UY
Sat 11/20 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-18.057.5W 55 - 0UY
Sat 11/27 Notre Dame at Stanford-20.553.0W 45 - 14OY
Sat 1/1 Notre Dame vs Oklahoma State+1.545.5L 35 - 37ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.2646%30.841%2.6716849%3263.57.1139%13.336%43%3.3374.821.5
ND.2547%4248%3.2621147%2373.84.1339%17.639%40%2.83380.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense630.817.345.6%3.572274941683264.247%53%41%49%19%.26
ND Defense1217.61839.4%2.831.4 - - - - - 44%55%39%40%22%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense613.316.739.3%3.331.5 - - - - - 51%49%36%43%18%.11
ND Offense124244.747.2%3.840.924449211237556%44%48%47%13%.25

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo633:3327.248%46%9.574.821.561.8132.4
Notre Dame1233:4924.249%65%4.4380.91.47.32.4229
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense647%41%40.51684.27.022.6768%13%0.82
ND Defense1244%39% - - - - .042.4371%14%1.04
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense651%36% - - - - -.042.6342%11%0.96
ND Offense1256%48%42.2211.4533.163.2688%10%0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense653%49%23.836.5325.88.913.7187.471.832%42%.536%2
ND Defense1255%40% - - - - - - 7.221.637%30%.348%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense649%43% - - - - - - 4.261.531%30%.287%1.9
ND Offense1244%47%19.330.2237.47.912.3153.371.629%36%.423%1.9

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9  #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo:    Notre Dame: 11.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9   Notre Dame: 17.4




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 11.2 NR
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: NR
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Notre Dame's 2021 Expected Record: -
Notre Dame's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #20
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9  #15

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 29
Toledo 21

Projected Total Points: 50
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense at Home: 44.7
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 18

Notre Dame's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202109/11Notre Dame32Toledo29Notre Dame -16.5Toledo55.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame101 Overs
Toledo010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#) TOL at (#) ND
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLND
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #56 #11
Perf GradeGrade #45 #12
OffenseOff #97 #24
DefenseDef #9 #13
Spec TeamsST #100 #14
TalentTal #86 #12
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Toledo on Offense
CategoryCat
TOL OffND Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #97 #13
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #65 #15
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Toledo Run Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffND Def
Run GameRun #17 #25
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #60 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #7
Toledo Pass Game
CategoryCat
TOL OffND Def
Pass GamePass #113 #17
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #118 #52
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCatND OffTOL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #24 #9
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #20 #21
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffTOL Def
Run GameRun #51 #5
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #4
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCatND OffTOL Def
Pass GamePass #40 #12
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #15 #40
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 2
Notre Dame -16.5 (55.0)
Notre Dame won vs Toledo this year (32-29)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

ND's OC Tommy Rees (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Marcus Freeman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD