Toledo at Bowling Green - 2021 Matchup Preview

Wednesday, November 10th 2021 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -10.5 (50.0)
Toledo 49 - Bowling Green: 17 (Mid-American)

Rockets (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (39 - 23)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BGSU coming off BYE
Our Line: -7 (SP+ TOL -19.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 23 - BGSU: 17 (40)
TOL Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
TOL Travel: 19 miles

Falcons (4 - 8) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Scot Loeffler (4 - 16)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TOL Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Toledo's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Toledo vs Norfolk State	-39.5	56.0	W 49 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/11	Toledo at Notre Dame	+16.5	55.0	L 29 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Toledo vs Colorado State	-14.5	59.0	L 6 - 22	U	N
Sat 9/25	Toledo at Ball State	-4.5	56.5	W 22 - 12	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Toledo at Massachusetts	-26.5	56.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Toledo vs Northern Illinois	-13.0	51.5	L 20 - 22	U	N
Sat 10/16	Toledo at Central Michigan	-5.0	53.0	L 23 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/23	Toledo vs Western Michigan	+1.5	54.5	W 34 - 15	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/2	Toledo vs Eastern Michigan	-9.0	54.5	L 49 - 52	O	N
Wed 11/10	Toledo at Bowling Green	-10.5	50.0	W 49 - 17	O	Y
Tue 11/16	Toledo at Ohio	-7.5	57.5	W 35 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Toledo vs Akron	-28.5	57.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/17	Toledo vs Middle Tennessee	-10.0	50.0	L 24 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/2	Bowling Green at Tennessee	+37.0	60.5	L 6 - 38	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Bowling Green vs South Alabama	+14.5	48.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Bowling Green vs Murray State	+2.5	44.0	W 27 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Bowling Green at Minnesota	+30.5	52.5	W 14 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Bowling Green at Kent State	+16.5	56.0	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Bowling Green vs Akron	-14.0	46.0	L 20 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/16	Bowling Green at Northern Illinois	+9.0	44.5	L 26 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Bowling Green vs Eastern Michigan	+4.5	49.5	L 24 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/30	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+13.5	51.5	W 56 - 44	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/10	Bowling Green vs Toledo	+10.5	50.0	L 17 - 49	O	N
Tue 11/16	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+17.0	52.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Fri 11/26	Bowling Green vs Ohio	+6.0	48.0	W 21 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL	.26	46%	30.8	41%	2.67	168	49%	326	3.57	.11	39%	13.3	36%	43%	3.33	74.8	2	1.5
BGSU	-.03	36%	20.5	42%	3.02	184	30%	142	1.67	.38	48%	24.3	50%	44%	4.82	43.2	2.2	0.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Offense	6	30.8	17.3	45.6%	3.57	2	27	494	168	326	4.2	47%	53%	41%	49%	19%	.26
BGSU Defense	5	24.3	19.5	48.2%	4.82	0.2	-	-	-	-	-	64%	36%	50%	44%	16%	.38

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TOL Defense	6	13.3	16.7	39.3%	3.33	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	36%	43%	18%	.11
BGSU Offense	5	20.5	17	36%	1.67	2.2	16	326	184	142	4.9	53%	47%	42%	30%	19%	-.03

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Toledo	6	33:33	27.2	48%	46%	9.5	74.8	2	1.5	6	1.8	1	32.4
Bowling Green	5	26:24	15.6	26%	21%	6	43.2	2.2	0.2	6.8	1.4	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Offense	6	47%	41%	40.5	168	4.2	7	.02	2.67	68%	13%	0.82
BGSU Defense	5	64%	50%	-	-	-	-	.4	3.72	75%	12%	1.27

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TOL Defense	6	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.04	2.63	42%	11%	0.96
BGSU Offense	5	53%	42%	37.8	184	4.9	5	-	3.02	85%	10%	0.66

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Offense	6	53%	49%	23.8	36.5	325.8	8.9	13.7	18	7	.47	1.8	32%	42%	.53	6%	2
BGSU Defense	5	36%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	.33	1.7	30%	45%	.69	3%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TOL Defense	6	49%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.26	1.5	31%	30%	.28	7%	1.9
BGSU Offense	5	47%	30%	10.8	25	142.4	5.7	13.2	1	7	-.07	1.6	36%	17%	-.14	8%	2.2

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #86
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Toledo's 2021 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.9 #56
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.7 #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: Bowling Green: -3.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.9 Bowling Green: -12.4

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -3.7 NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Bowling Green's 2021 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.4 #112
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.1 #126
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 23
Bowling Green 17

Projected Total Points: 40

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2021 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	23	Toledo -10.5	Bowling Green	45.5	Over
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	9	7	8 Overs
Toledo	16	6	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	8 - 5	2 - 3	6 - 2

(#) TOL at (#) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TOL	BGSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#112
Perf GradeGrade	#45	#121
OffenseOff	#97	#131
DefenseDef	#9	#85
Spec TeamsST	#100	#90
TalentTal	#86	#110
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Toledo Injury Report

Bowling Green Injury Report

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#65	#95
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#17	#83
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#60	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#43

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#126	#21
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#70	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#130	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#110	#12
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#128	#40
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'21 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Toledo 10.5 (50.0)
Toledo won at Bowling Green this year (49-17)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (28-23)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2024 (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BGSU's OC Terry Malone (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Eric Lewis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD