Cincinnati at South Florida - 2021 Matchup Preview
Cincinnati logo   Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls  South Florida logo
Friday, November 12th 2021 (6:00 PM EST)
Cincinnati -24.5 (58.5)
Cincinnati 45 - South Florida: 28  (American Athletic)

 
Bearcats (13 - 1) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (38 - 14)
Avg Score : 30 - 26 (31 - 35 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
USF 2nd straight Home Game
USF is playing their 5th straight game
CIN is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -14  (SP+ CIN -33.5)
Projected Score: CIN: 25 - USF: 38 (63)
CIN Win prob: 95% | Cover: 52%
CIN Travel: 779 miles
Bulls (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Charlie Weis Jr. (2 - 10)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (51 - 14 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Cincinnati's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4 Cincinnati vs Miami (OH)-22.549.0W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/11 Cincinnati vs Murray State-36.551.5W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/18 Cincinnati at Indiana-4.050.0W 38 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2 Cincinnati at Notre Dame-2.550.0W 24 - 13UY
Fri 10/8 Cincinnati vs Temple-30.052.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 10/16 Cincinnati vs UCF-21.556.0W 56 - 21OY
Sat 10/23 Cincinnati at Navy-28.549.5W 27 - 20UN
Sat 10/30 Cincinnati at Tulane-27.561.5W 31 - 12UN
Sat 11/6 Cincinnati vs Tulsa-22.556.0W 28 - 20UN
Fri 11/12 Cincinnati at South Florida-24.558.5W 45 - 28ON
Sat 11/20 Cincinnati vs SMU-9.565.5W 48 - 14UY
Fri 11/26 Cincinnati at East Carolina-14.556.5W 35 - 13UY
Sat 12/4 Cincinnati vs Houston-10.552.5W 35 - 20OY
Fri 12/31 Cincinnati vs Alabama+13.057.5L 6 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Cincinnati's Schedule
South Florida's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2 South Florida at NC State+20.058.0L 0 - 45UN
Sat 9/11 South Florida vs Florida+29.057.0L 20 - 42OY
Sat 9/18 South Florida vs Florida A&M-22.550.0W 38 - 17ON
Sat 9/25 South Florida at BYU+23.554.5L 27 - 35OY
Sat 10/2 South Florida at SMU+21.568.5L 17 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16 South Florida vs Tulsa+7.556.0L 31 - 32OY
Sat 10/23 South Florida vs Temple-1.554.5W 34 - 14UY
Thu 10/28 South Florida at East Carolina+9.555.5L 14 - 29UN
Sat 11/6 South Florida vs Houston+13.553.0L 42 - 54OY
Fri 11/12 South Florida vs Cincinnati+24.558.5L 28 - 45OY
Sat 11/20 South Florida at Tulane+5.559.5L 14 - 45UN
Fri 11/26 South Florida at UCF+17.062.0L 13 - 17UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN.2546%30.342%2.8821351%2394.01.0134%25.638%31%1.9876.21.62
USF.0840%40.540%2.8314941%2172.29.2247%23.446%48%4.2948.91.91.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CIN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Offense1030.330.846.2%4.011.6224512132395.653%47%42%51%16%.25
USF Defense923.414.346.6%4.291.4 - - - - - 56%44%46%48%13%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CIN Defense1025.635.334.2%1.982 - - - - - 46%54%38%31%20%.01
USF Offense940.55140.3%2.291.921365149217448%51%40%41%20%.08

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Cincinnati1032:0021.945%67%8.776.21.627.22.9236.4
South Florida928:272131%29%5.348.91.91.44.80.8328.5
Run Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Offense1053%42%38.1212.65.629.132.8860%11%1.12
USF Defense956%46% - - - - .132.9479%8%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CIN Defense1046%38% - - - - .022.5781%12%0.92
USF Offense948%40%37.4148.8411.072.8372%14%0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Offense1047%51%19.729.5238.68.112.1206.391.529%38%.435%1.8
USF Defense944%48% - - - - - - 10.341.629%34%.464%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CIN Defense1054%31% - - - - - - 16-1.635%25%.148%2
USF Offense951%41%20.834.7216.66.310.4126.091.434%25%.096%2

Cincinnati's Power Ratings
Cincinnati's Power Rating: NR
Cincinnati's Offense Rating: NR
Cincinnati's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Cincinnati's 2021 Expected Record: -
Cincinnati's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.2  #5
Cincinnati's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.5  #13
Cincinnati's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.9  #11

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati:    South Florida: -3.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Cincinnati: 21.2   South Florida: -12.1




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: -3.55 NR
South Florida's Offense Rating: NR
South Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating:  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
South Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
South Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1  #111
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5  #96
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #118

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Cincinnati Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.3

Cincinnati's 2021 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 38
Cincinnati 25

Projected Total Points: 63
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 51
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

South Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202210/08Cincinnati28South Florida24Cincinnati -27South Florida58.5Under
202111/12South Florida28Cincinnati45Cincinnati -24.5South Florida58.5Over
202010/03Cincinnati28South Florida7Cincinnati -22South Florida44.5Under
201911/16South Florida17Cincinnati20Cincinnati -13South Florida46.5Under
201811/10Cincinnati35South Florida23Cincinnati -14South Florida53.0Over
201710/14South Florida33Cincinnati3South Florida -24South Florida63.0Under
201610/01Cincinnati20South Florida45South Florida -6South Florida64.5Over
201511/20South Florida65Cincinnati27Cincinnati -2.5South Florida66.0Over
201410/24Cincinnati34South Florida17Cincinnati -10Cincinnati0
201310/05South Florida26Cincinnati20Cincinnati -13.5South Florida0
201211/23Cincinnati27South Florida10
201110/22South Florida34Cincinnati37
201010/22Cincinnati30South Florida38
200910/15South Florida17Cincinnati34
200810/30Cincinnati24South Florida10
200711/03South Florida33Cincinnati38
200610/22Cincinnati23South Florida6
200511/19South Florida31Cincinnati16
200411/20Cincinnati45South Florida23
200310/31South Florida24Cincinnati17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida794 Overs
Cincinnati1314 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 76 - 42 - 34 - 1
Road Teams7 - 134 - 61 - 43 - 2

(#) CIN at (#) USF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCINUSF
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #5 #111
Perf GradeGrade #11 #114
OffenseOff #32 #111
DefenseDef #5 #118
Spec TeamsST #9 #29
TalentTal #52 #73
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Cincinnati on Offense
CategoryCat
CIN OffUSF Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #32 #118
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #13 #118
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Cincinnati Run Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #8 #117
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #135
Cincinnati Pass Game
CategoryCat
CIN OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #13 #111
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #81 #124
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
South Florida on Offense
CategoryCatUSF OffCIN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #111 #5
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #96 #11
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
South Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
USF OffCIN Def
Run GameRun #87 #17
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #113 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #13
South Florida Pass Game
CategoryCatUSF OffCIN Def
Pass GamePass #124 #3
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #4
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
USF 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

CIN 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'21 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Cincinnati 24.5 (58.5)
Cincinnati won at South Florida this year (45-28)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
CIN's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Cincinnati's Full Roster

CIN's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

USF's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Glenn Spencer (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD