New Mexico State at Kentucky - 2021 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Kentucky Wildcats

Saturday, November 20th 2021 (12:00 PM EST)
Kentucky -35.5 (61.0)
Kentucky 56 - New Mexico State: 16

Aggies (2 - 10) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Doug Martin (23 - 67)
Avg Score : 23 - 40 (21 - 45 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.7 MPH
NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
UK is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -21.5 (SP+ UK -38)
Projected Score: NMSU: 26 - UK: 41 (67)
UK Win prob: 98% | Cover: 46%
NMSU Travel: 1314 miles, 2 hrs behind

Wildcats (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mark Stoops (52 - 50)
Avg Score : 32 - 22 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/28	New Mexico State vs UTEP	+9.5	59.0	L 3 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/4	New Mexico State at San Diego State	+31.0	51.0	L 10 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/11	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+19.5	55.5	L 25 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/18	New Mexico State vs South Carolina State	-3.5	54.5	W 43 - 35	O	Y
Sat 9/25	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	+17.0	63.0	L 21 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/2	New Mexico State at San José State	+25.5	51.5	L 31 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/9	New Mexico State at Nevada	+28.5	64.5	L 28 - 55	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+18.0	62.5	L 34 - 48	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	New Mexico State vs Utah State	+18.0	72.0	L 13 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/13	New Mexico State at Alabama	+50.0	67.0	L 3 - 59	U	N
Sat 11/20	New Mexico State at Kentucky	+35.5	61.0	L 16 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/27	New Mexico State vs Massachusetts	-7.0	58.5	W 44 - 27	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Kentucky vs UL Monroe	-31.0	54.0	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Kentucky vs Missouri	-5.5	56.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Kentucky vs Chattanooga	-33.5	48.0	W 28 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/25	Kentucky at South Carolina	-4.5	49.0	W 16 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Kentucky vs Florida	+7.5	56.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Kentucky vs LSU	-2.0	50.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Kentucky at Georgia	+21.5	44.5	L 13 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Kentucky at Mississippi State	+1.0	47.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/6	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+1.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/13	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-21.5	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/20	Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-35.5	61.0	W 56 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Kentucky at Louisville	+3.0	58.0	W 52 - 21	O	Y
Sat 1/1	Kentucky vs Iowa	-3.0	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.12	42%	22.6	45%	3.14	101	41%	270	3.11	.4	50%	40.4	51%	50%	3.94	60.2	1.3	2
UK	.26	50%	32.3	52%	3.57	200	49%	226	4.88	.16	44%	21.7	42%	47%	3.61	42.2	1.8	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
UK	#118 (.09)	41% (89)		47% (31)	3.02 (71)	146	35% (123)	185	3.49 (104)	#62 (.16)	46% (111)		49% (122)	42% (75)	3.44 (31)	52.1	1.9	1.3

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	22.6	21	41.9%	3.11	1.3	22	370	101	270	3.3	38%	62%	45%	41%	20%	.12
UK Defense	13	21.7	22.3	44.4%	3.61	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	42%	47%	18%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	40.4	45.3	49.9%	3.94	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	51%	50%	17%	.4
UK Offense	13	32.3	38.3	50.4%	4.88	1.8	23	425	200	226	5.2	55%	45%	52%	49%	15%	.26

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:31	21.9	38%	45%	6.9	60.2	1.3	2	6	1.6	0	26
Kentucky	13	32:35	22.8	50%	38%	4.8	42.2	1.8	0.9	6.1	2.2	4	27.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	38%	45%	30.8	100.6	3.3	15	.18	3.14	78%	12%	0.91
UK Defense	13	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	.06	3.03	76%	11%	0.84

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	51%	51%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.53	67%	12%	1.05
UK Offense	13	55%	52%	38.2	199.5	5.2	27	.23	3.57	78%	9%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	62%	41%	24.7	43.2	269.7	6.3	10.9	15	10	.11	1.4	35%	28%	.2	8%	1.9
UK Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.27	1.4	32%	29%	.2	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.63	1.8	27%	40%	.75	5%	2.3
UK Offense	13	45%	49%	18.6	28.2	225.6	8	12.1	24	13	.31	1.5	27%	39%	.44	6%	1.8

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #147
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2021 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -24.2 #129
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 43.7 #130

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Kentucky: 9.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.2 Kentucky: 13.4

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 9.2 NR
Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Kentucky's 2021 Expected Record: -
Kentucky's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #21
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #35

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 40.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.3

New Mexico State's 2021 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 7
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 41
New Mexico State 26

Total Points: 67

Based on Last 4 Games
Kentucky 43
New Mexico State 29

Total Points: 72

Based on Entire Season
Kentucky 39
New Mexico State 22

Total Points: 61

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 32.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Kentucky's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2021	11/20	Kentucky	56	New Mexico State	16	Kentucky -35.5	Kentucky	61.0	Over
2016	09/17	Kentucky	62	New Mexico State	42	Kentucky -21.5	New Mexico State	65.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	2	1	2 Overs
New Mexico State	0	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#) NMSU at (#) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#129	#23
Perf GradeGrade	#135	#18
OffenseOff	#130	#4
DefenseDef	#136	#71
Spec TeamsST	#109	#60
TalentTal	#147	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#130	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#112	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#133	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#99	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#56

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#135	#73
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#136
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#21	#130
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#18	#133
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#136

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#135
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'21 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 53° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Kentucky -35.5 (61.0)
Kentucky won vs New Mexico State this year (56-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

NMSU's OC Doug Martin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Frank Spaziani (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD