Florida at Kentucky - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (6:00 PM EDT)
Florida -7.5 (56.5)
Kentucky 20 - Florida: 13 (SEC)

Gators (6 - 7) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Dan Mullen (31 - 10)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (13 - 30 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UK is playing their 5th straight game
FLA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -3.5 (SP+ UK -2)
Projected Score: FLA: 21 - UK: 28 (49)
FLA Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
FLA Travel: 592 miles

Wildcats (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mark Stoops (52 - 50)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FLA Players
UK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-23.5	51.5	W 35 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/11	Florida at South Florida	-29.0	57.0	W 42 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/18	Florida vs Alabama	+14.0	59.5	L 29 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Florida vs Tennessee	-19.0	65.0	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Florida at Kentucky	-7.5	56.5	L 13 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/9	Florida vs Vanderbilt	-39.0	60.5	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Florida at LSU	-12.5	61.0	L 42 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Florida vs Georgia	+14.0	50.0	L 7 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/6	Florida at South Carolina	-20.5	52.0	L 17 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/13	Florida vs Samford	-36.0	68.5	W 70 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/20	Florida at Missouri	-9.5	69.0	L 23 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/27	Florida vs Florida State	-4.0	58.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Thu 12/23	Florida vs UCF	-7.0	56.0	L 17 - 29	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Kentucky vs UL Monroe	-31.0	54.0	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Kentucky vs Missouri	-5.5	56.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Kentucky vs Chattanooga	-33.5	48.0	W 28 - 23	O	N
Sat 9/25	Kentucky at South Carolina	-4.5	49.0	W 16 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Kentucky vs Florida	+7.5	56.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Kentucky vs LSU	-2.0	50.5	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/16	Kentucky at Georgia	+21.5	44.5	L 13 - 30	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Kentucky at Mississippi State	+1.0	47.0	L 17 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/6	Kentucky vs Tennessee	+1.0	57.5	L 42 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/13	Kentucky at Vanderbilt	-21.5	52.5	W 34 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/20	Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-35.5	61.0	W 56 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Kentucky at Louisville	+3.0	58.0	W 52 - 21	O	Y
Sat 1/1	Kentucky vs Iowa	-3.0	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA	.32	50%	21.6	45%	3.19	131	54%	379	4.51	.24	46%	24	48%	43%	4.04	46.4	1.6	1.3
UK	.12	43%	23	49%	3.07	196	35%	122	3.33	.13	45%	26.4	44%	46%	3.57	56	1.1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Offense	12	21.6	13	50.3%	4.51	1.6	26	510	131	379	4.3	41%	59%	45%	54%	15%	.32
UK Defense	11	26.4	22.6	45.3%	3.57	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	44%	46%	14%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FLA Defense	12	24	30.4	45.8%	4.04	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	48%	43%	16%	.24
UK Offense	11	23	31.7	43.4%	3.33	1.1	17	318	196	122	4.9	61%	38%	49%	35%	14%	.12

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida	12	31:02	26.3	50%	58%	5.5	46.4	1.6	1.3	6	2.8	1	28.4
Kentucky	11	31:00	17.3	37%	47%	5.7	56	1.1	2	4.9	1.4	3	27.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Offense	12	41%	45%	30.6	131.3	4.3	12	.13	3.19	77%	8%	0.88
UK Defense	11	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	.05	2.86	59%	9%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FLA Defense	12	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.21	75%	10%	0.87
UK Offense	11	61%	49%	39.8	196.4	4.9	19	.18	3.07	75%	9%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Offense	12	59%	54%	26.8	39.4	378.6	9.6	14.2	46	10	.46	1.6	28%	42%	.51	8%	2
UK Defense	11	50%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.21	1.4	28%	36%	.39	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FLA Defense	12	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.28	1.6	29%	35%	.39	6%	1.8
UK Offense	11	38%	35%	13	21.9	121.8	5.6	9.4	7	5	.04	1.3	28%	22%	.15	5%	1.9

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: NR
Florida's Offense Rating: NR
Florida's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Florida's 2021 Expected Record: -
Florida's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.0 #29
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #22
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #39

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: Kentucky: 9.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 11.0 Kentucky: 13.4

Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 9.2 NR
Kentucky's Offense Rating: NR
Kentucky's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Kentucky's 2021 Expected Record: -
Kentucky's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #23
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #21
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #35

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.4

Florida's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 9 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Kentucky 28
Florida 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Kentucky	38	Florida	7	Florida -4.5	Kentucky	44.5	Over
2024	10/19	Florida	48	Kentucky	20	Kentucky -2.5	Florida	42.5	Over
2023	09/30	Kentucky	33	Florida	14	Kentucky -1	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2022	09/10	Florida	16	Kentucky	26	Florida -6	Kentucky	53.0	Under
2021	10/02	Kentucky	20	Florida	13	Florida -7.5	Kentucky	56.5	Under
2020	11/28	Florida	34	Kentucky	10	Florida -23.5	Florida	60.5	Under
2019	09/14	Kentucky	21	Florida	29	Florida -10	Kentucky	46.5	Over
2018	09/08	Florida	16	Kentucky	27	Florida -13.5	Kentucky	52.5	Under
2017	09/23	Kentucky	27	Florida	28	Florida -3	Kentucky	44.0	Over
2016	09/10	Florida	45	Kentucky	7	Florida -16.5	Florida	48.5	Over
2015	09/19	Kentucky	9	Florida	14	Florida -4.5	Florida	52.5	Under
2014	09/13	Florida	36	Kentucky	30	Florida -17	Kentucky	0
2013	09/28	Kentucky	7	Florida	24	Florida -12.5	Florida	0
2012	09/22	Florida	38	Kentucky	0
2011	09/24	Kentucky	10	Florida	48
2010	09/25	Florida	48	Kentucky	14
2009	09/26	Kentucky	7	Florida	41
2008	10/25	Florida	63	Kentucky	5
2007	10/20	Kentucky	37	Florida	45
2006	09/23	Florida	26	Kentucky	7
2005	09/24	Kentucky	28	Florida	49
2004	09/25	Florida	20	Kentucky	3
2003	09/27	Kentucky	21	Florida	24
2002	09/28	Florida	41	Kentucky	34
2001	09/22	Kentucky	10	Florida	44
2000	09/22	Florida	59	Kentucky	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kentucky	5	8	6 Overs
Florida	21	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	14 - 12	8 - 5	3 - 3	5 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 14	5 - 8	2 - 5	3 - 3

(#) FLA at (#) UK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FLA	UK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#29	#23
Perf GradeGrade	#89	#18
OffenseOff	#73	#4
DefenseDef	#90	#71
Spec TeamsST	#84	#60
TalentTal	#9	#30
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Florida Injury Report

Kentucky Injury Report

Florida on Offense


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#73	#71
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#22	#35
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Florida Run Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Run GameRun	#3	#66
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#56

Florida Pass Game


CategoryCat	FLA Off	UK Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#52	#73
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#21	#39
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Run GameRun	#18	#61
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#62

Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	UK Off	FLA Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#115
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#14	#29
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining CFP Hopefuls
'21 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Florida 7.5 (56.5)
Kentucky won vs Florida this year (20-13)

Previous Matchups
Kentucky beat Florida last year (38-7)
Florida beat Kentucky in 2024 (48-20)
Kentucky beat Florida in 2023 (33-14)

FLA's OC Dan Mullen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UK's OC Liam Coen (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Brad White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD