Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis

Home Field Advantage — ATS Analysis | Punt and Rally

How teams perform ATS when they're the home underdog (getting points). This isolates the "hostile environment for visiting favorites" effect.

Overall Home ATS Home Underdogs Win Rate vs ATS Year-over-Year Trends Conference Breakdown

Last 10 Years (2016–2025) Last 5 Years (2021–2025) Last 2 Years (2024–2025) 2025

#	Team	Conf	Dog Games	ATS Record	ATS % ▲	Avg Margin vs Spread	Outright Wins
1	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	3	0-3	0.0%	-7.50	0
2	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	3	0-3	0.0%	-5.67	0
3	San José State	Mountain West	3	0-3	0.0%	-11.17	0
4	Charlotte	American Athletic	8	1-7	12.5%	-5.06	1
5	North Carolina	ACC	6	1-5	16.7%	-7.25	0
6	UTEP	Conference USA	5	1-4	20.0%	-4.10	1
7	Auburn	SEC	4	1-3	25.0%	-1.50	1
8	Michigan	Big Ten	4	1-3	25.0%	-5.00	1
9	Purdue	Big Ten	8	2-6	25.0%	-11.56	0
10	UAB	American Athletic	8	2-6	25.0%	-2.31	2
11	Air Force	Mountain West	7	2-5	28.6%	+1.86	2
12	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	7	2-5	28.6%	+0.43	2
13	Arizona	Big 12	3	1-2	33.3%	-10.17	1
14	Baylor	Big 12	3	1-2	33.3%	+0.17	1
15	Cincinnati	Big 12	3	1-2	33.3%	-4.17	0
16	Florida Atlantic	American Athletic	6	2-4	33.3%	-12.25	0
17	Georgia State	Sun Belt	6	2-4	33.3%	-0.75	1
18	LSU	SEC	3	1-2	33.3%	-14.17	1
19	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	6	2-4	33.3%	-8.00	0
20	Nebraska	Big Ten	3	1-2	33.3%	-6.50	0
21	Oklahoma	SEC	3	1-2	33.3%	+2.00	1
22	South Florida	American Athletic	3	1-2	33.3%	+0.33	1
23	Virginia Tech	ACC	3	1-2	33.3%	-1.17	0
24	Washington	Big Ten	3	1-2	33.3%	-2.33	1
25	West Virginia	Big 12	9	3-6	33.3%	-7.56	2
26	Massachusetts	Mid-American	8	3-5	37.5%	-8.75	0
27	Oklahoma State	Big 12	8	3-5	37.5%	-2.00	0
28	Tulsa	American Athletic	8	3-5	37.5%	-9.38	1
29	UCLA	Big Ten	8	3-5	37.5%	-4.44	2
30	Wake Forest	ACC	8	3-5	37.5%	-1.81	1
31	Wisconsin	Big Ten	8	3-5	37.5%	-4.00	2
32	Colorado State	Mountain West	5	2-3	40.0%	-3.90	1
33	Florida State	ACC	5	2-3	40.0%	+0.30	1
34	Michigan State	Big Ten	5	2-3	40.0%	-5.30	1
35	Pittsburgh	ACC	5	2-3	40.0%	-4.70	1
36	Arkansas	SEC	7	3-4	42.9%	-9.36	1
37	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	7	3-4	42.9%	-2.50	3
38	Houston	Big 12	7	3-4	42.9%	+1.50	3
39	Kent State	Mid-American	7	3-4	42.9%	-1.21	1
40	Nevada	Mountain West	8	3-4-1	42.9%	+3.19	2
41	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	7	3-4	42.9%	-2.50	1
42	Mississippi State	SEC	9	4-5	44.4%	-4.94	1
43	Buffalo	Mid-American	5	2-2-1	50.0%	+1.40	1
44	Colorado	Big 12	6	3-3	50.0%	-6.33	1
45	Louisiana	Sun Belt	4	2-2	50.0%	-0.50	2
46	Maryland	Big Ten	6	3-3	50.0%	-5.67	1
47	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	4	2-2	50.0%	+10.88	2
48	Oregon State	Pac-12	6	3-3	50.0%	-2.50	2
49	Rutgers	Big Ten	4	2-2	50.0%	-3.00	1
50	San Diego State	Mountain West	4	2-2	50.0%	+10.50	1
51	Syracuse	ACC	6	3-3	50.0%	-4.25	3
52	Troy	Sun Belt	4	2-2	50.0%	+1.13	2
53	Temple	American Athletic	9	5-4	55.6%	-1.94	2
54	Boston College	ACC	7	4-3	57.1%	+0.71	1
55	Wyoming	Mountain West	7	4-3	57.1%	+3.21	2
56	California	ACC	5	3-2	60.0%	+3.50	2
57	Illinois	Big Ten	5	3-2	60.0%	+6.20	3
58	South Carolina	SEC	5	3-2	60.0%	+1.40	1
59	Vanderbilt	SEC	5	3-2	60.0%	+8.90	2
60	Kennesaw State	Conference USA	8	5-3	62.5%	+7.31	4
61	Rice	American Athletic	8	5-3	62.5%	+3.75	5
62	Akron	Mid-American	6	4-2	66.7%	+7.17	3
63	Arizona State	Big 12	3	2-1	66.7%	+3.83	2
64	Florida	SEC	9	6-3	66.7%	+7.00	6
65	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	4	2-1-1	66.7%	+0.13	1
66	Kentucky	SEC	6	4-2	66.7%	+5.17	1
67	Missouri	SEC	3	2-1	66.7%	-1.00	1
68	NC State	ACC	3	2-1	66.7%	+9.17	2
69	Navy	American Athletic	3	2-1	66.7%	+1.83	2
70	South Alabama	Sun Belt	3	2-1	66.7%	+5.50	1
71	Stanford	ACC	10	6-3-1	66.7%	+7.30	4
72	Virginia	ACC	3	2-1	66.7%	+1.17	1
73	Washington State	Pac-12	3	2-1	66.7%	+10.67	2
74	Western Michigan	Mid-American	3	2-1	66.7%	+4.00	1
75	Ball State	Mid-American	7	5-2	71.4%	+5.79	3
76	Central Michigan	Mid-American	4	3-1	75.0%	+1.75	1
77	Duke	ACC	4	3-1	75.0%	-1.38	2
78	New Mexico	Mountain West	4	3-1	75.0%	+5.63	2
79	New Mexico State	Conference USA	8	6-2	75.0%	+9.88	3
80	Jacksonville State	Conference USA	5	4-1	80.0%	+9.60	4
81	Minnesota	Big Ten	6	4-1-1	80.0%	+8.17	3
82	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	6	5-1	83.3%	+7.00	3
83	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	7	5-1-1	83.3%	+1.57	3
84	Utah State	Mountain West	6	5-1	83.3%	+12.25	2
85	App State	Sun Belt	3	3-0	100.0%	+12.50	3
86	Hawai'i	Mountain West	7	6-0-1	100.0%	+13.36	3
87	Marshall	Sun Belt	3	3-0	100.0%	+15.33	2
88	UTSA	American Athletic	3	3-0	100.0%	+26.17	3

Methodology: Home field advantage measured by ATS (against the spread) performance. The spread equalizes talent differences, so consistent outperformance = genuine home field edge. Neutral-site games excluded. FCS opponents excluded. Minimum 3 home underdog games required. Home underdog = spread > 0 (team getting points). ATS Cover % excludes pushes from the denominator. Data: 2024–2025.