Florida Atlantic at East Carolina Week 11 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at East Carolina Matchup - Week 11
Fri, Nov 8 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 657 miSame TZ
14 49
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
21
ECU -5.5
East Carolina
37
P&R Line East Carolina -16.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas East Carolina -5.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida Atlantic, while Game Control favors East Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -5.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → East Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 East Carolina Coming off BYE
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.331
East Carolina #49
+0.426
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.510
East Carolina #54
+0.558
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
East Carolina #69
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #122
+7.038
East Carolina #83
+7.512
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.788
East Carolina #62
+0.839
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
East Carolina #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
East Carolina
14.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #98
0.86
East Carolina #34
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #125
2.14
East Carolina #92
1.86
Florida Atlantic +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
37.6
East Carolina #1
46.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #103
46.1
East Carolina #53
37.3
East Carolina +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
96.2 — 2.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 35
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself