Florida Atlantic at UConn Week 4 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at UConn Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Rentschler Field East Hartford, CT · Turf · 40,000 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 1,144 miSame TZ
14 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
18
CONN -1
UConn
33
P&R Line UConn -15.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UConn -1.0 · O/U 46.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida Atlantic, while Game Control favors UConn. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
UConn wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UConn -1.0
O/U 46.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UConn · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
UConn 2024 Schedule
UConn's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UConn at Maryland+19.0L7–5045.5L7–50ON
Sat 9/7UConn vs Merrimack-14.5W63–1744.5W63–17OY
Sat 9/14UConn at Duke+17.5L21–2646.5L21–26OY
Sat 9/21UConn vs Florida Atlantic-1.0W48–1446.0W48–14OY
Sat 9/28UConn vs Buffalo-6.0W47–344.5W47–3OY
Sat 10/5UConn vs Temple-17.5W29–2049.0W29–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19UConn vs Wake Forest+2.5L20–2355.5L20–23UN
Sat 10/26UConn vs Rice-6.5W17–1047.0W17–10UY
Fri 11/1UConn vs Georgia State-7.0W34–2748.0W34–27ON
Sat 11/9UConn at UAB-7.5W31–2354.0W31–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UConn at Syracuse+10.0L24–3153.0L24–31OY
Sat 11/30UConn at Massachusetts-9.5W47–4249.5W47–42ON
Sat 12/28UConn vs North Carolina+2.0W27–1453.5W27–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UConn PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UConn
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UConn
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.268
UConn #67
+0.399
UConn Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.359
UConn #85
+0.508
UConn Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
UConn #53
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UConn Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #122
+6.554
UConn #51
+7.812
UConn Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.786
UConn #82
+0.824
UConn Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
UConn #17
68.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UConn Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UConn Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
UConn
-3.8
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
UConn
13.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
UConn
17.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #98
1.00
UConn #72
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #125
1.33
UConn #53
3.50
Florida Atlantic +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UConn Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
30.7
UConn #1
40.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #103
57.0
UConn #69
50.0
UConn +10.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UConn
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UConn
81.8 — 7.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UConn won by 34
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
9–16 (36%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gordon Sammis Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Brock Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself