Fri, Nov 29 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Greenville, NC
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Navy✈ 238 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Navy
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Navy entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Navy wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Navy wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -2.5
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Navy 2024 Schedule
Navy's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Navy vs Bucknell | -31.5W49–21 | 48.5 | W49–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Navy vs Temple | -11.5W38–11 | 43.5 | W38–11 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Navy vs Memphis | +9.5W56–44 | 47.0 | W56–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Navy at UAB | -4.5W41–18 | 56.5 | W41–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Navy at Air Force | -10.0W34–7 | 37.0 | W34–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Navy vs Charlotte | -16.5W51–17 | 57.5 | W51–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Navy vs Notre Dame | +14.0L14–51 | 50.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Navy at Rice | -12.5L10–24 | 49.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Navy at South Florida | -4.5W28–7 | 59.5 | W28–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Navy vs Tulane | +7.5L0–35 | 49.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/29 | Navy at East Carolina | +2.5W34–20 | 54.0 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 12/14 | Navy vs Army | +6.0 | 39.5 | — | — | — |
| Fri 12/27 | Navy vs Oklahoma | -1.0W21–20 | 44.0 | W21–20 | U | N |
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | East Carolina vs Norfolk State | -31.5W42–3 | 51.5 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | East Carolina at Old Dominion | +1.5W20–14 | 53.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | East Carolina vs App State | -0.5L19–21 | 56.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | East Carolina at Liberty | +7.5L24–35 | 55.0 | L24–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | East Carolina vs UTSA | -2.0W30–20 | 53.5 | W30–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | East Carolina at Charlotte | -9.5L24–55 | 47.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | East Carolina at Army | +17.5L28–45 | 54.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | East Carolina vs Temple | -8.5W56–34 | 48.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/7 | East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic | -5.5W49–14 | 58.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/14 | East Carolina at Tulsa | -16.0W38–31 | 63.5 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | East Carolina at North Texas | +2.5W40–28 | 73.5 | W40–28 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | East Carolina vs Navy | -2.5L20–34 | 54.0 | L20–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | East Carolina vs NC State | +7.5W26–21 | 61.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Navy Edge
Navy +0.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Navy Edge
Navy +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Navy. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Navy
Brian Newberry #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Drew Cronic
Yr 1
#1
DC
P.J. Volker
Yr 2
#1
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓