Sat, Oct 26 2024
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Greenville, NC
·
Turf
·
50,000 cap
Temple✈ 320 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Temple,
while Game Control favors East Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Temple wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
East Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -8.5
O/U 48.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Temple 2024 Schedule
Temple's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Temple at Oklahoma | +42.5L3–51 | 59.5 | L3–51 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Temple at Navy | +11.5L11–38 | 43.5 | L11–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Temple vs Coastal Carolina | +17.5L20–28 | 51.5 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Temple vs Utah State | +6.5W45–29 | 53.5 | W45–29 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/26 | Temple vs Army | +11.0L14–42 | 46.5 | L14–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Temple at UConn | +17.5L20–29 | 49.0 | L20–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Temple vs Tulsa | -3.5W20–10 | 51.5 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Temple at East Carolina | +8.5L34–56 | 48.5 | L34–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Temple at Tulane | +25.5L6–52 | 50.5 | L6–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Temple vs Florida Atlantic | -2.0W18–15 | 50.0 | W18–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/22 | Temple at UTSA | +16.5L27–51 | 56.0 | L27–51 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Temple vs North Texas | +10.5L17–24 | 63.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | East Carolina vs Norfolk State | -31.5W42–3 | 51.5 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | East Carolina at Old Dominion | +1.5W20–14 | 53.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | East Carolina vs App State | -0.5L19–21 | 56.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | East Carolina at Liberty | +7.5L24–35 | 55.0 | L24–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | East Carolina vs UTSA | -2.0W30–20 | 53.5 | W30–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | East Carolina at Charlotte | -9.5L24–55 | 47.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | East Carolina at Army | +17.5L28–45 | 54.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | East Carolina vs Temple | -8.5W56–34 | 48.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/7 | East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic | -5.5W49–14 | 58.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/14 | East Carolina at Tulsa | -16.0W38–31 | 63.5 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | East Carolina at North Texas | +2.5W40–28 | 73.5 | W40–28 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | East Carolina vs Navy | -2.5L20–34 | 54.0 | L20–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | East Carolina vs NC State | +7.5W26–21 | 61.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Temple Edge
Temple +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +20.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
East Carolina
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
50.8 — 24.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Temple
Stan Drayton #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Danny Langsdorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Everett Withers
Yr 2
#1
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓