East Carolina at Old Dominion Week 2 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Old Dominion Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Foreman Field Norfolk, VA · Turf · 20,118 cap
East Carolina✈ 107 miSame TZ
20 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
29
Old Dominion
27
P&R Line East Carolina -2
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Old Dominion -1.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
East Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -1.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → East Carolina · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Old Dominion 2024 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Old Dominion at South Carolina+20.5L19–2349.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/7Old Dominion vs East Carolina-1.5L14–2053.5L14–20UN
Sat 9/14Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech+15.5L17–3747.5L17–37ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Old Dominion at Bowling Green+11.0W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Sat 10/5Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina+4.0L37–4551.5L37–45ON
Sat 10/12Old Dominion at Georgia State+3.0W21–1453.0W21–14UY
Sat 10/19Old Dominion vs Texas State+10.5W24–1460.0W24–14UY
Thu 10/24Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern+1.0W47–1952.0W47–19OY
Sat 11/2Old Dominion at App State-2.5L20–2858.0L20–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Old Dominion vs James Madison+1.5L32–3551.0L32–35ON
Sat 11/23Old Dominion vs Marshall-3.0L35–4251.0L35–42ON
Sat 11/30Old Dominion at Arkansas State-5.5W40–3258.5W40–32OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #49
+0.391
Old Dominion #47
+0.386
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #54
+0.560
Old Dominion #61
+0.585
Old Dominion Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #69
0.159
Old Dominion #68
0.160
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Old Dominion Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #83
+7.430
Old Dominion #6
+8.596
Old Dominion Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #62
+0.821
Old Dominion #71
+0.820
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #37
69.6
Old Dominion #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Old Dominion
0.3
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Old Dominion
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.4
Old Dominion
14.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #34
0.00
Old Dominion #32
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #92
0.00
Old Dominion #31
0.00
East Carolina +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
81.0
Old Dominion #1
28.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
6.1
Old Dominion #71
40.9
East Carolina +52.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #1
15–23 (40%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kevin Decker Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Seiler Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself