UTSA at East Carolina Week 5 College Football Matchup UTSA at East Carolina Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium Greenville, NC · Turf · 50,000 cap
UTSA✈ 1,299 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
20 30
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTSA
27
ECU -2
East Carolina
30
P&R Line East Carolina -3
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas East Carolina -2 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
East Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -2
O/U 53.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTSA · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTSA 2024 Schedule
UTSA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTSA vs Kennesaw State-24.0W28–1649.5W28–16UN
Sat 9/7UTSA at Texas State+2.5L10–4958.5L10–49ON
Sat 9/14UTSA at Texas+36.5L7–5656.5L7–56ON
Sat 9/21UTSA vs Houston Christian-35.5W45–754.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/28UTSA at East Carolina+2.0L20–3053.5L20–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12UTSA at Rice-3.5L27–2951.0L27–29ON
Sat 10/19UTSA vs Florida Atlantic-4.0W38–2452.5W38–24OY
Sat 10/26UTSA at Tulsa-9.5L45–4652.5L45–46ON
Sat 11/2UTSA vs Memphis+7.0W44–3662.0W44–36OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15UTSA vs North Texas-1.0W48–2773.0W48–27OY
Fri 11/22UTSA vs Temple-16.5W51–2756.0W51–27OY
Sat 11/30UTSA at Army+6.5L24–2953.5L24–29UY
Mon 12/23UTSA vs Coastal Carolina-12.5W44–1556.5W44–15OY
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTSA PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTSA
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTSA #61
+0.362
East Carolina #49
+0.349
UTSA Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTSA #52
+0.605
East Carolina #54
+0.543
UTSA Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTSA #3
0.217
East Carolina #69
0.159
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTSA Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTSA #94
+7.478
East Carolina #83
+7.571
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTSA #100
+0.797
East Carolina #62
+0.776
UTSA Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTSA #37
69.6
East Carolina #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTSA
-0.2
East Carolina
1.4
Offense Rating
UTSA
16.4
East Carolina
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTSA
16.6
East Carolina
14.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTSA #44
0.33
East Carolina #34
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #74
1.33
East Carolina #92
1.33
East Carolina +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTSA #1
45.4
East Carolina #1
65.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #64
47.3
East Carolina #53
16.9
East Carolina +19.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
39–14 (74%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Justin Burke Yr 2 #1
DC Jess Loepp Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself