East Carolina at Tulsa Week 12 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Tulsa Matchup - Week 12
Fri, Nov 15 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Skelly Field at H. A. Chapman Stadium Tulsa, OK · Turf · 30,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 1,039 mi-1 hr TZ
38 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
43
ECU -16
Tulsa
22
P&R Line East Carolina -20.5
P&R Total O/U 64.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas East Carolina -16 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
East Carolina wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
East Carolina -16
O/U 63.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → East Carolina · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Tulsa Coming off BYE
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Tulsa 2024 Schedule
Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Tulsa vs Northwestern State-37.5W62–2855.5W62–28ON
Sat 9/7Tulsa at Arkansas State+9.5L24–2865.5L24–28UY
Sat 9/14Tulsa vs Oklahoma State+17.5L10–4562.5L10–45UN
Sat 9/21Tulsa at Louisiana Tech+3.0W23–2056.5W23–20UY
Sat 9/28Tulsa at North Texas+7.0L20–5265.5L20–52ON
Sat 10/5Tulsa vs Army+13.5L7–4950.5L7–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Tulsa at Temple+3.5L10–2051.5L10–20UN
Sat 10/26Tulsa vs UTSA+9.5W46–4552.5W46–45OY
Sat 11/2Tulsa at UAB+2.5L21–5957.5L21–59ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/14Tulsa vs East Carolina+16.0L31–3863.5L31–38OY
Sat 11/23Tulsa at South Florida+17.5L30–6360.0L30–63ON
Sat 11/30Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic+2.5L16–6357.5L16–63ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
East Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ East Carolina
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ East Carolina
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #49
+0.535
Tulsa #124
+0.224
East Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #54
+0.786
Tulsa #104
+0.476
East Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #69
0.159
Tulsa #82
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #83
+8.487
Tulsa #100
+7.382
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #62
+0.855
Tulsa #131
+0.736
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #37
69.6
Tulsa #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Tulsa
0.8
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Tulsa
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Tulsa
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #34
1.13
Tulsa #80
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #92
1.63
Tulsa #128
2.63
East Carolina +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
51.8
Tulsa #1
23.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
33.5
Tulsa #134
60.4
East Carolina +28.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
East Carolina
30.1 — 45.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
East Carolina won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tulsa
Kevin Wilson #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Steve Spurrier Jr. Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Polizzi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself