North Texas at Florida Atlantic Week 7 College Football Matchup North Texas at Florida Atlantic Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
North Texas✈ 1,124 mi+1 hr TZ
41 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
33
Florida Atlantic
28
P&R Line North Texas -5
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas North Texas -5.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
North Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
North Texas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
North Texas -5.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Florida Atlantic Coming off BYE 🛋 North Texas Coming off BYE
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31North Texas at South Alabama+6.0W52–3861.5W52–38OY
Sat 9/7North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin-21.5W35–2072.5W35–20UN
Sat 9/14North Texas at Texas Tech+10.5L21–6670.5L21–66ON
Sat 9/21North Texas vs Wyoming-7.0W44–1755.0W44–17OY
Sat 9/28North Texas vs Tulsa-7.0W52–2065.5W52–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12North Texas at Florida Atlantic-5.5W41–3758.5W41–37ON
Sat 10/19North Texas at Memphis+10.5L44–5267.5L44–52OY
Sat 10/26North Texas vs Tulane+7.5L37–4570.5L37–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9North Texas vs Army+6.5L3–1468.0L3–14UN
Fri 11/15North Texas at UTSA+1.0L27–4873.0L27–48ON
Sat 11/23North Texas vs East Carolina-2.5L28–4073.5L28–40UN
Sat 11/30North Texas at Temple-10.5W24–1763.5W24–17UN
Fri 1/3North Texas vs Texas State+15.5L28–3067.5L28–30UY
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
North Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas #45
+0.436
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.389
North Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #64
+0.546
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.481
North Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas #133
0.113
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #69
+7.635
Florida Atlantic #122
+7.227
North Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas #70
+0.831
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.835
Florida Atlantic Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas #87
71.6
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Atlantic Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
North Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-1.3
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Offense Rating
North Texas
15.9
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.3
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #85
2.50
Florida Atlantic #98
0.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #90
2.00
Florida Atlantic #125
1.75
North Texas +1.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? North Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
53.7
Florida Atlantic #1
37.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #89
27.7
Florida Atlantic #103
52.0
North Texas +15.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida Atlantic
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
50.6 — 26.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Texas won by 4
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on North Texas with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jordan Davis Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Caponi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself