Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Wagner✈ 1,042 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida Atlantic wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -34.5
O/U 52.5
ESPN Bet
Wagner 2024 Schedule
Wagner's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Wagner at Florida Atlantic | +34.5L10–41 | 52.5 | L10–41 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Wagner at Massachusetts | +23.0L7–35 | 48.0 | L7–35 | U | N |
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Florida Atlantic at Michigan State | +12.0L10–16 | 45.0 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Army | -1.5L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -3.5W38–20 | 44.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida Atlantic at UConn | +1.0L14–48 | 46.0 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida Atlantic vs Wagner | -34.5W41–10 | 52.5 | W41–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Florida Atlantic vs North Texas | +5.5L37–41 | 58.5 | L37–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida Atlantic at UTSA | +4.0L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/1 | Florida Atlantic vs South Florida | +1.5L21–44 | 48.0 | L21–44 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | +5.5L14–49 | 58.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida Atlantic at Temple | +2.0L15–18 | 50.0 | L15–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte | +3.0L27–39 | 49.5 | L27–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | -2.5W63–16 | 57.5 | W63–16 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wagner Edge
Wagner +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +33.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓