Florida Atlantic at Tulsa Week 14 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Tulsa Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Skelly Field at H. A. Chapman Stadium Tulsa, OK · Turf · 30,000 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 1,151 mi-1 hr TZ
63 16
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
33
FAU -2.5
Tulsa
27
P&R Line Florida Atlantic -6.5
P&R Total O/U 60
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Florida Atlantic -2.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -2.5
O/U 57.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida Atlantic · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Tulsa 2024 Schedule
Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Tulsa vs Northwestern State-37.5W62–2855.5W62–28ON
Sat 9/7Tulsa at Arkansas State+9.5L24–2865.5L24–28UY
Sat 9/14Tulsa vs Oklahoma State+17.5L10–4562.5L10–45UN
Sat 9/21Tulsa at Louisiana Tech+3.0W23–2056.5W23–20UY
Sat 9/28Tulsa at North Texas+7.0L20–5265.5L20–52ON
Sat 10/5Tulsa vs Army+13.5L7–4950.5L7–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Tulsa at Temple+3.5L10–2051.5L10–20UN
Sat 10/26Tulsa vs UTSA+9.5W46–4552.5W46–45OY
Sat 11/2Tulsa at UAB+2.5L21–5957.5L21–59ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/14Tulsa vs East Carolina+16.0L31–3863.5L31–38OY
Sat 11/23Tulsa at South Florida+17.5L30–6360.0L30–63ON
Sat 11/30Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic+2.5L16–6357.5L16–63ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida Atlantic PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.483
Tulsa #124
+0.268
Florida Atlantic Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.702
Tulsa #104
+0.441
Florida Atlantic Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
Tulsa #82
0.151
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #122
+7.889
Tulsa #100
+7.258
Florida Atlantic Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.814
Tulsa #131
+0.747
Florida Atlantic Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Tulsa #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tulsa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tulsa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Tulsa
0.8
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Tulsa
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Tulsa
16.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #98
0.70
Tulsa #80
0.70
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #125
2.30
Tulsa #128
2.40
Florida Atlantic +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
32.4
Tulsa #1
22.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #103
51.9
Tulsa #134
62.3
Florida Atlantic +10.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tulsa
Kevin Wilson #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Steve Spurrier Jr. Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Polizzi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself