Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Blaik Field at Michie Stadium
West Point, NY
·
Turf
·
38,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 440 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Army
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Army entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Army wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Army wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Army -17.5
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Army
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | East Carolina vs Norfolk State | -31.5W42–3 | 51.5 | W42–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | East Carolina at Old Dominion | +1.5W20–14 | 53.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | East Carolina vs App State | -0.5L19–21 | 56.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | East Carolina at Liberty | +7.5L24–35 | 55.0 | L24–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | East Carolina vs UTSA | -2.0W30–20 | 53.5 | W30–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | East Carolina at Charlotte | -9.5L24–55 | 47.5 | L24–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | East Carolina at Army | +17.5L28–45 | 54.0 | L28–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | East Carolina vs Temple | -8.5W56–34 | 48.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/7 | East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic | -5.5W49–14 | 58.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/14 | East Carolina at Tulsa | -16.0W38–31 | 63.5 | W38–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | East Carolina at North Texas | +2.5W40–28 | 73.5 | W40–28 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | East Carolina vs Navy | -2.5L20–34 | 54.0 | L20–34 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | East Carolina vs NC State | +7.5W26–21 | 61.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
Army 2024 Schedule
Army's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Army vs Lehigh | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Army at Florida Atlantic | +1.5W24–7 | 42.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Army vs Rice | -7.0W37–14 | 44.0 | W37–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/26 | Army at Temple | -11.0W42–14 | 46.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Army at Tulsa | -13.5W49–7 | 50.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Army vs UAB | -27.0W44–10 | 55.5 | W44–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Army vs East Carolina | -17.5W45–28 | 54.0 | W45–28 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Army vs Air Force | -18.0W20–3 | 38.5 | W20–3 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Army at North Texas | -6.5W14–3 | 68.0 | W14–3 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Army vs Notre Dame | +14.5L14–49 | 44.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Army vs UTSA | -6.5W29–24 | 53.5 | W29–24 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Army vs Tulane | +4.5W35–14 | 46.5 | W35–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/14 | Army vs Navy | -6.0 | 39.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 12/28 | Army vs Louisiana Tech | -15.0W27–6 | 44.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Army
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Army Edge
Army +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Army Edge
Army +32.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Army
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Army
91.4 — 4.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Army won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Army with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 3
#1
Army
Jeff Monken #1
70–55 (56%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Cody Worley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Woody
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

