East Carolina at Army Week 8 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Army Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Blaik Field at Michie Stadium West Point, NY · Turf · 38,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 440 miSame TZ
28 45
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
22
ECU +17.5
Army
33
P&R Line Army -10.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Army -17.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Army has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Army entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Army wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Army wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Army -17.5
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Army · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Army 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 East Carolina Coming off BYE
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Army 2024 Schedule
Army's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Army vs Lehigh-28
Sat 9/7Army at Florida Atlantic+1.5W24–742.5W24–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Army vs Rice-7.0W37–1444.0W37–14OY
Thu 9/26Army at Temple-11.0W42–1446.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/5Army at Tulsa-13.5W49–750.5W49–7OY
Sat 10/12Army vs UAB-27.0W44–1055.5W44–10UY
Sat 10/19Army vs East Carolina-17.5W45–2854.0W45–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Army vs Air Force-18.0W20–338.5W20–3UN
Sat 11/9Army at North Texas-6.5W14–368.0W14–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Army vs Notre Dame+14.5L14–4944.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/30Army vs UTSA-6.5W29–2453.5W29–24UN
Fri 12/6Army vs Tulane+4.5W35–1446.5W35–14OY
Sat 12/14Army vs Navy-6.039.5
Sat 12/28Army vs Louisiana Tech-15.0W27–644.5W27–6UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Army PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Army
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #49
+0.342
Army #10
+0.480
Army Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #54
+0.430
Army #8
+0.750
Army Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #69
0.159
Army #100
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #83
+6.357
Army #19
+8.319
Army Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #62
+0.867
Army #6
+0.902
Army Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #37
69.6
Army #63
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Army
-1.0
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Army
14.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Army
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Army Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #34
0.60
Army #50
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #92
2.00
Army #70
0.20
Army +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Army Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
52.5
Army #1
84.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
30.5
Army #6
6.3
Army +32.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Army
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Army
91.4 — 4.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Army won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Army with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Army
Jeff Monken #1
70–55 (56%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Cody Worley Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself