Florida Atlantic at Michigan State Week 1 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Michigan State Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Aug 30 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 1,156 miSame TZ
10 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
17
MSU -12
Michigan State
31
P&R Line Michigan State -13.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan State -12.0 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -12.0
O/U 45.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Florida Atlantic · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.0W16–1045.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan State at Maryland+7.5W27–2444.5W27–24OY
Sat 9/14Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W40–053.5W40–0UN
Sat 9/21Michigan State at Boston College+4.5L19–2345.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/28Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.5L7–3848.5L7–38UN
Fri 10/4Michigan State at Oregon+22.5L10–3153.0L10–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan State vs Iowa+7.0W32–2039.5W32–20OY
Sat 10/26Michigan State at Michigan+3.5L17–2439.0L17–24ON
Sat 11/2Michigan State vs Indiana+7.5L10–4753.5L10–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Michigan State at Illinois+2.0L16–3847.5L16–38ON
Fri 11/22Michigan State vs Purdue-14.0W24–1749.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.5L14–4146.5L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida Atlantic PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.361
Michigan State #105
+0.334
Florida Atlantic Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.534
Michigan State #79
+0.518
Florida Atlantic Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
Michigan State #93
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #122
+7.249
Michigan State #116
+7.061
Florida Atlantic Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.810
Michigan State #86
+0.823
Michigan State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Michigan State #127
73.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Atlantic Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.4
Michigan State
-2.0
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Michigan State
15.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
17.9
Michigan State
17.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #98
0.00
Michigan State #74
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #125
0.00
Michigan State #108
0.00
Florida Atlantic +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
0.0
Michigan State #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #103
0.0
Michigan State #97
0.0
Florida Atlantic +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
60.2 — 21.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself