Fri, Aug 30 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 1,156 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -12.0
O/U 45.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Florida Atlantic
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Florida Atlantic at Michigan State | +12.0L10–16 | 45.0 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Army | -1.5L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -3.5W38–20 | 44.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida Atlantic at UConn | +1.0L14–48 | 46.0 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida Atlantic vs Wagner | -34.5W41–10 | 52.5 | W41–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Florida Atlantic vs North Texas | +5.5L37–41 | 58.5 | L37–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida Atlantic at UTSA | +4.0L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/1 | Florida Atlantic vs South Florida | +1.5L21–44 | 48.0 | L21–44 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | +5.5L14–49 | 58.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida Atlantic at Temple | +2.0L15–18 | 50.0 | L15–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte | +3.0L27–39 | 49.5 | L27–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | -2.5W63–16 | 57.5 | W63–16 | O | Y |
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic | -12.0W16–10 | 45.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5W27–24 | 44.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M | -42.5W40–0 | 53.5 | W40–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan State at Boston College | +4.5L19–23 | 45.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +23.5L7–38 | 48.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Michigan State at Oregon | +22.5L10–31 | 53.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan State vs Iowa | +7.0W32–20 | 39.5 | W32–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan State at Michigan | +3.5L17–24 | 39.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan State vs Indiana | +7.5L10–47 | 53.5 | L10–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Michigan State at Illinois | +2.0L16–38 | 47.5 | L16–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Michigan State vs Purdue | -14.0W24–17 | 49.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -1.5L14–41 | 46.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
60.2 — 21.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Charlie Frye
Yr 2
#1
DC
Roc Bellantoni
Yr 2
#1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

