Sat, Nov 23 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Charlotte✈ 618 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Charlotte,
while Game Control favors Florida Atlantic.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Charlotte wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida Atlantic wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Charlotte -3
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida Atlantic
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Charlotte 2024 Schedule
Charlotte's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Charlotte vs James Madison | +6.5L7–30 | 47.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Charlotte at North Carolina | +21.5L20–38 | 47.5 | L20–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb | -14.0W27–26 | 46.5 | W27–26 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Charlotte at Indiana | +28.5L14–52 | 50.0 | L14–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Charlotte at Rice | +4.0W21–20 | 48.0 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Charlotte vs East Carolina | +9.5W55–24 | 47.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Charlotte at Navy | +16.5L17–51 | 57.5 | L17–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Charlotte at Memphis | +17.0L28–33 | 56.5 | L28–33 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/31 | Charlotte vs Tulane | +14.5L3–34 | 55.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Charlotte vs South Florida | -1.5L24–59 | 53.5 | L24–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Charlotte at Florida Atlantic | -3.0W39–27 | 49.5 | W39–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Charlotte vs UAB | -1.5W29–27 | 59.5 | W29–27 | U | Y |
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Florida Atlantic at Michigan State | +12.0L10–16 | 45.0 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Army | -1.5L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -3.5W38–20 | 44.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida Atlantic at UConn | +1.0L14–48 | 46.0 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida Atlantic vs Wagner | -34.5W41–10 | 52.5 | W41–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Florida Atlantic vs North Texas | +5.5L37–41 | 58.5 | L37–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida Atlantic at UTSA | +4.0L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/1 | Florida Atlantic vs South Florida | +1.5L21–44 | 48.0 | L21–44 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | +5.5L14–49 | 58.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida Atlantic at Temple | +2.0L15–18 | 50.0 | L15–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte | +3.0L27–39 | 49.5 | L27–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | -2.5W63–16 | 57.5 | W63–16 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Charlotte Edge
Charlotte +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +14.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Charlotte
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Charlotte
15.1 — 72.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Charlotte won by 12
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Charlotte
Biff Poggi #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Miller
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ryan Osborn
Yr 2
#1
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Charlie Frye
Yr 2
#1
DC
Roc Bellantoni
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓