Florida Atlantic at Temple Week 12 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Temple Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA · Turf · 68,532 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 976 miSame TZ
15 18
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
29
FAU +2
Temple
23
P&R Line Florida Atlantic -5.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Temple -2 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Florida Atlantic has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida Atlantic entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Temple -2
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida Atlantic · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Florida Atlantic 2nd straight Road Game
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Temple 2024 Schedule
Temple's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Temple at Oklahoma+42.5L3–5159.5L3–51UN
Sat 9/7Temple at Navy+11.5L11–3843.5L11–38ON
Sat 9/14Temple vs Coastal Carolina+17.5L20–2851.5L20–28UY
Sat 9/21Temple vs Utah State+6.5W45–2953.5W45–29OY
Thu 9/26Temple vs Army+11.0L14–4246.5L14–42ON
Sat 10/5Temple at UConn+17.5L20–2949.0L20–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Temple vs Tulsa-3.5W20–1051.5W20–10UY
Sat 10/26Temple at East Carolina+8.5L34–5648.5L34–56ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Temple at Tulane+25.5L6–5250.5L6–52ON
Sat 11/16Temple vs Florida Atlantic-2.0W18–1550.0W18–15UY
Fri 11/22Temple at UTSA+16.5L27–5156.0L27–51ON
Sat 11/30Temple vs North Texas+10.5L17–2463.5L17–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida Atlantic PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.396
Temple #128
+0.242
Florida Atlantic Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.461
Temple #116
+0.408
Florida Atlantic Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
Temple #126
0.124
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic #122
+7.367
Temple #97
+7.288
Florida Atlantic Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.805
Temple #132
+0.730
Florida Atlantic Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Temple #89
71.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Atlantic Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Temple Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Temple
-4.0
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Temple
14.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Temple
18.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #98
0.75
Temple #109
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #125
2.38
Temple #120
1.89
Florida Atlantic +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida Atlantic Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
33.7
Temple #1
22.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #103
51.7
Temple #133
62.8
Florida Atlantic +11.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Temple
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
33.6 — 37.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Temple won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida Atlantic. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Temple
Stan Drayton #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Danny Langsdorf Yr 3 #1
DC Everett Withers Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself