Army at Florida Atlantic Week 2 College Football Matchup Army at Florida Atlantic Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Army✈ 1,094 miSame TZ
Away
24 7
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Army
33
Florida Atlantic
14
P&R Line Army -19
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Florida Atlantic -1.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Army wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -1.5
O/U 42.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Army · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Army 2024 Schedule
Army's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Army vs Lehigh-28
Sat 9/7Army at Florida Atlantic+1.5W24–742.5W24–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Army vs Rice-7.0W37–1444.0W37–14OY
Thu 9/26Army at Temple-11.0W42–1446.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/5Army at Tulsa-13.5W49–750.5W49–7OY
Sat 10/12Army vs UAB-27.0W44–1055.5W44–10UY
Sat 10/19Army vs East Carolina-17.5W45–2854.0W45–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Army vs Air Force-18.0W20–338.5W20–3UN
Sat 11/9Army at North Texas-6.5W14–368.0W14–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Army vs Notre Dame+14.5L14–4944.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/30Army vs UTSA-6.5W29–2453.5W29–24UN
Fri 12/6Army vs Tulane+4.5W35–1446.5W35–14OY
Sat 12/14Army vs Navy-6.039.5
Sat 12/28Army vs Louisiana Tech-15.0W27–644.5W27–6UY
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Army PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Army
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Army #10
+0.524
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.290
Army Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Army #8
+0.715
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.346
Army Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Army #100
0.143
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Army #19
+8.195
Florida Atlantic #122
+5.758
Army Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Army #6
+0.913
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.827
Army Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Army #63
70.6
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Army Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Army Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Army
-1.1
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Offense Rating
Army
14.9
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Army
16.0
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Army Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Army #50
0.00
Florida Atlantic #98
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #70
0.00
Florida Atlantic #125
1.00
Army +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Army Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Army #1
76.2
Florida Atlantic #1
21.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Army #6
8.2
Florida Atlantic #103
60.2
Army +54.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Army
Jeff Monken #1
70–55 (56%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Cody Worley Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself