East Carolina at Liberty Week 4 College Football Matchup East Carolina at Liberty Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
East Carolina✈ 157 miSame TZ
24 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
26
ECU +7.5
Liberty
30
P&R Line Liberty -3.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -7.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Liberty, while Game Control favors East Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -7.5
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Liberty 2nd straight Home Game
East Carolina 2024 Schedule
East Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31East Carolina vs Norfolk State-31.5W42–351.5W42–3UY
Sat 9/7East Carolina at Old Dominion+1.5W20–1453.5W20–14UY
Sat 9/14East Carolina vs App State-0.5L19–2156.5L19–21UN
Sat 9/21East Carolina at Liberty+7.5L24–3555.0L24–35ON
Sat 9/28East Carolina vs UTSA-2.0W30–2053.5W30–20UY
Sat 10/5East Carolina at Charlotte-9.5L24–5547.5L24–55ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19East Carolina at Army+17.5L28–4554.0L28–45OY
Sat 10/26East Carolina vs Temple-8.5W56–3448.5W56–34OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/7East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic-5.5W49–1458.5W49–14OY
Thu 11/14East Carolina at Tulsa-16.0W38–3163.5W38–31ON
Sat 11/23East Carolina at North Texas+2.5W40–2873.5W40–28UY
Fri 11/29East Carolina vs Navy-2.5L20–3454.0L20–34UN
Sat 12/28East Carolina vs NC State+7.5W26–2161.5W26–21UY
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Liberty vs Campbell-41.5W41–2458.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/7Liberty at New Mexico State-22.5W30–2454.5W30–24UN
Sat 9/14Liberty vs UTEP-23.5W28–1057.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/21Liberty vs East Carolina-7.5W35–2455.0W35–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Liberty vs Florida International-15.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/23Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.0L24–2748.0L24–27ON
Wed 10/30Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.5L21–3164.0L21–31UN
Sat 11/9Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.5W37–1754.5W37–17UY
Sat 11/16Liberty at Massachusetts-17.0W35–3453.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/23Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.0W38–2156.5W38–21OY
Fri 11/29Liberty at Sam Houston-2.5L18–2047.5L18–20UN
Sat 1/4Liberty vs Buffalo+4.5L7–2650.5L7–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina #49
+0.317
Liberty #24
+0.419
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #54
+0.482
Liberty #56
+0.591
Liberty Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina #69
0.159
Liberty #71
0.158
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Even
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina #83
+7.473
Liberty #43
+8.055
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina #62
+0.828
Liberty #7
+0.895
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina #37
69.6
Liberty #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
East Carolina Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
Liberty
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
Liberty
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #34
0.50
Liberty #23
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #92
0.50
Liberty #41
0.50
Liberty +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
64.7
Liberty #1
49.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
17.6
Liberty #102
31.6
East Carolina +14.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Liberty
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
East Carolina
14.8 — 67.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Liberty won by 11
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
24–34 (41%) · Yr 6 at school
OC John David Baker Yr 1 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 2 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself