Florida International at Florida Atlantic Week 3 College Football Matchup Florida International at Florida Atlantic Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
20 38
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida International
24
Florida Atlantic
25
P&R Line Florida International -0.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Florida Atlantic -3.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Florida International wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Florida International wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -3.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Florida Atlantic 2nd straight Home Game
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida International at Indiana+20.5L7–3150.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/7Florida International vs Central Michigan+3.5W52–1651.5W52–16OY
Sat 9/14Florida International at Florida Atlantic+3.5L20–3844.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/21Florida International vs Monmouth-12.5L42–4559.5L42–45ON
Sat 9/28Florida International vs Louisiana Tech+2.0W17–1049.0W17–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Florida International at Liberty+15.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Wed 10/16Florida International at UTEP-7.0L21–3047.0L21–30ON
Tue 10/22Florida International vs Sam Houston+5.0L7–1047.0L7–10UY
Tue 10/29Florida International vs New Mexico State-7.0W34–1343.5W34–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Florida International at Jacksonville State+12.5L31–3458.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/23Florida International at Kennesaw State-9.0L26–2742.5L26–27ON
Sat 11/30Florida International vs Middle Tennessee-9.5W35–2450.5W35–24OY
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Florida Atlantic at Michigan State+12.0L10–1645.0L10–16UY
Sat 9/7Florida Atlantic vs Army-1.5L7–2442.5L7–24UN
Sat 9/14Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-3.5W38–2044.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/21Florida Atlantic at UConn+1.0L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 9/28Florida Atlantic vs Wagner-34.5W41–1052.5W41–10UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Florida Atlantic vs North Texas+5.5L37–4158.5L37–41OY
Sat 10/19Florida Atlantic at UTSA+4.0L24–3852.5L24–38ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/1Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+1.5L21–4448.0L21–44ON
Thu 11/7Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+5.5L14–4958.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida Atlantic at Temple+2.0L15–1850.0L15–18UN
Sat 11/23Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte+3.0L27–3949.5L27–39ON
Sat 11/30Florida Atlantic at Tulsa-2.5W63–1657.5W63–16OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida International #101
+0.340
Florida Atlantic #80
+0.289
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #48
+0.576
Florida Atlantic #96
+0.245
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida International #129
0.120
Florida Atlantic #61
0.165
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Atlantic Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #21
+8.163
Florida Atlantic #122
+6.678
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida International #111
+0.798
Florida Atlantic #108
+0.805
Florida Atlantic Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida International #61
70.5
Florida Atlantic #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida International
-4.1
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Offense Rating
Florida International
11.7
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida International
15.8
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida International #87
1.00
Florida Atlantic #98
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #51
1.00
Florida Atlantic #125
1.50
Florida International +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida International #1
45.3
Florida Atlantic #1
14.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #65
46.7
Florida Atlantic #103
73.8
Florida International +31.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida Atlantic
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
64.0 — 23.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida Atlantic won by 18
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC David Yost Yr 3 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Charlie Frye Yr 2 #1
DC Roc Bellantoni Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself