Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Florida International
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Florida International wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Florida International wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -3.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Florida International at Indiana | +20.5L7–31 | 50.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida International vs Central Michigan | +3.5W52–16 | 51.5 | W52–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +3.5L20–38 | 44.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida International vs Monmouth | -12.5L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida International vs Louisiana Tech | +2.0W17–10 | 49.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Florida International at Liberty | +15.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Florida International at UTEP | -7.0L21–30 | 47.0 | L21–30 | O | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | +5.0L7–10 | 47.0 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/29 | Florida International vs New Mexico State | -7.0W34–13 | 43.5 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Florida International at Jacksonville State | +12.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida International at Kennesaw State | -9.0L26–27 | 42.5 | L26–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida International vs Middle Tennessee | -9.5W35–24 | 50.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
Florida Atlantic 2024 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Florida Atlantic at Michigan State | +12.0L10–16 | 45.0 | L10–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Army | -1.5L7–24 | 42.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -3.5W38–20 | 44.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida Atlantic at UConn | +1.0L14–48 | 46.0 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida Atlantic vs Wagner | -34.5W41–10 | 52.5 | W41–10 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Florida Atlantic vs North Texas | +5.5L37–41 | 58.5 | L37–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Florida Atlantic at UTSA | +4.0L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/1 | Florida Atlantic vs South Florida | +1.5L21–44 | 48.0 | L21–44 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | +5.5L14–49 | 58.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Florida Atlantic at Temple | +2.0L15–18 | 50.0 | L15–18 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte | +3.0L27–39 | 49.5 | L27–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | -2.5W63–16 | 57.5 | W63–16 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +31.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida Atlantic
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
64.0 — 23.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida Atlantic won by 18
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida International with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 3
#1
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Charlie Frye
Yr 2
#1
DC
Roc Bellantoni
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

