Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee Week 8 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 8
Wed, Oct 16 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 162 mi-1 hr TZ
5 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
23
Middle Tennessee
27
P&R Line Middle Tennessee -4
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Middle Tennessee -8.5 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -8.5
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Middle Tennessee · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kennesaw State Coming off BYE
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Middle Tennessee PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #134
+0.286
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.335
Middle Tennessee Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.468
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.468
Even
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Middle Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #103
+8.110
Middle Tennessee #128
+7.151
Kennesaw State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.808
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.857
Middle Tennessee Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kennesaw State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #102
0.00
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #91
2.50
Middle Tennessee #133
3.00
Kennesaw State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Middle Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
12.1
Middle Tennessee #1
18.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #129
71.9
Middle Tennessee #131
69.6
Middle Tennessee +6.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself