Wed, Oct 16 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
·
Turf
·
31,000 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 162 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -8.5
O/U 50.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Middle Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kennesaw State at UTSA | +24.0L16–28 | 49.5 | L16–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Kennesaw State vs Louisiana | +14.5L10–34 | 46.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kennesaw State at San José State | +16.5L10–31 | 41.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Kennesaw State vs UT Martin | +1.5L13–24 | 45.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State | +17.5L24–63 | 49.5 | L24–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee | +8.5L5–14 | 50.0 | L5–14 | U | N |
| Wed 10/23 | Kennesaw State vs Liberty | +27.0W27–24 | 48.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky | +24.0L14–31 | 49.0 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Kennesaw State at UTEP | +4.5L35–43 | 42.0 | L35–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston | +21.0L17–23 | 42.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Kennesaw State vs Florida International | +9.0W27–26 | 42.5 | W27–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech | +13.5L0–33 | 41.5 | L0–33 | U | N |
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss | +42.5L3–52 | 60.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +10.5L21–49 | 53.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Middle Tennessee vs Duke | +14.5L17–45 | 51.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | +27.0L7–24 | 62.0 | L7–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | +5.0L21–48 | 48.0 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State | -8.5W14–5 | 50.0 | W14–5 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/23 | Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State | +20.5L20–42 | 64.5 | L20–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.0W20–13 | 48.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Middle Tennessee vs Liberty | +12.5L17–37 | 54.5 | L17–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -3.5L21–36 | 54.0 | L21–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | +9.5L24–35 | 50.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kennesaw State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +6.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Chandler Burks
Yr 1
#1
DC
Greg Harris
Yr 1
#1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bodie Reeder
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Stewart
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

