Sat, Nov 2 2024
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, TX
·
Turf
·
51,500 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 1,187 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UTEP,
while Game Control favors Middle Tennessee.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UTEP wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UTEP -2
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UTEP
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss | +42.5L3–52 | 60.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +10.5L21–49 | 53.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Middle Tennessee vs Duke | +14.5L17–45 | 51.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | +27.0L7–24 | 62.0 | L7–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | +5.0L21–48 | 48.0 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State | -8.5W14–5 | 50.0 | W14–5 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/23 | Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State | +20.5L20–42 | 64.5 | L20–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.0W20–13 | 48.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Middle Tennessee vs Liberty | +12.5L17–37 | 54.5 | L17–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -3.5L21–36 | 54.0 | L21–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | +9.5L24–35 | 50.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | UTEP at Nebraska | +27.5L7–40 | 49.0 | L7–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | UTEP vs Southern Utah | -6.5L24–27 | 54.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | UTEP at Liberty | +23.5L10–28 | 57.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | UTEP at Colorado State | +8.5L17–27 | 49.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/3 | UTEP vs Sam Houston | +10.0L21–41 | 49.5 | L21–41 | O | N |
| Thu 10/10 | UTEP at Western Kentucky | +19.0L17–44 | 55.5 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Wed 10/16 | UTEP vs Florida International | +7.0W30–21 | 47.0 | W30–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/22 | UTEP at Louisiana Tech | +6.5L10–14 | 49.0 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | UTEP vs Middle Tennessee | -2.0L13–20 | 48.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | UTEP vs Kennesaw State | -4.5W43–35 | 42.0 | W43–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | UTEP at Tennessee | +41.5L0–56 | 54.0 | L0–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | UTEP at New Mexico State | +3.5W42–35 | 51.5 | W42–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UTEP Edge
UTEP +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +3.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bodie Reeder
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Stewart
Yr 1
#1
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jake Brown
Yr 1
#1
DC
J. J. Clark
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

