Middle Tennessee at UTEP Week 10 College Football Matchup Middle Tennessee at UTEP Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, TX · Turf · 51,500 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 1,187 mi-1 hr TZ
20 13
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Middle Tennessee
23
UTEP -2
UTEP
27
P&R Line UTEP -3.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UTEP -2 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UTEP, while Game Control favors Middle Tennessee. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UTEP wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Middle Tennessee wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UTEP -2
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UTEP · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Middle Tennessee 2nd straight Road Game
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTEP PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UTEP
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.259
UTEP #121
+0.396
UTEP Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.405
UTEP #108
+0.623
UTEP Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
UTEP #34
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #128
+6.854
UTEP #132
+7.422
UTEP Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.791
UTEP #124
+0.864
UTEP Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
UTEP #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTEP Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTEP Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
UTEP
-16.2
Offense Rating
Middle Tennessee
5.5
UTEP
4.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Middle Tennessee
22.9
UTEP
20.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UTEP Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
UTEP #130
0.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #133
2.29
UTEP #130
2.00
UTEP +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Middle Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Middle Tennessee #1
24.1
UTEP #1
21.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #131
62.1
UTEP #120
62.7
Middle Tennessee +3.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself