Florida International at Kennesaw State Week 13 College Football Matchup Florida International at Kennesaw State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Fifth Third Bank Stadium Kennesaw, GA · Turf · 8,318 cap
Florida International✈ 624 miSame TZ
26 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida International
30
FIU -9
Kennesaw State
18
P&R Line Florida International -12
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Florida International -9 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Florida International wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Florida International -9
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida International · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kennesaw State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Florida International 2nd straight Road Game
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida International at Indiana+20.5L7–3150.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/7Florida International vs Central Michigan+3.5W52–1651.5W52–16OY
Sat 9/14Florida International at Florida Atlantic+3.5L20–3844.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/21Florida International vs Monmouth-12.5L42–4559.5L42–45ON
Sat 9/28Florida International vs Louisiana Tech+2.0W17–1049.0W17–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Florida International at Liberty+15.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Wed 10/16Florida International at UTEP-7.0L21–3047.0L21–30ON
Tue 10/22Florida International vs Sam Houston+5.0L7–1047.0L7–10UY
Tue 10/29Florida International vs New Mexico State-7.0W34–1343.5W34–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Florida International at Jacksonville State+12.5L31–3458.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/23Florida International at Kennesaw State-9.0L26–2742.5L26–27ON
Sat 11/30Florida International vs Middle Tennessee-9.5W35–2450.5W35–24OY
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida International
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida International #101
+0.344
Kennesaw State #134
+0.084
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #48
+0.567
Kennesaw State #133
+0.049
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida International #129
0.120
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kennesaw State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #21
+8.591
Kennesaw State #103
+6.986
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida International #111
+0.854
Kennesaw State #133
+0.727
Florida International Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida International #61
70.5
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida International
-4.1
Kennesaw State
-4.2
Offense Rating
Florida International
11.7
Kennesaw State
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida International
15.7
Kennesaw State
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida International #87
0.89
Kennesaw State #102
0.22
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #51
0.67
Kennesaw State #91
1.33
Florida International +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida International #1
37.3
Kennesaw State #1
18.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #65
40.4
Kennesaw State #129
59.8
Florida International +18.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida International
29.9 — 49.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kennesaw State won by 1
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC David Yost Yr 3 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself