Kennesaw State at UTEP Week 11 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at UTEP Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, TX · Turf · 51,500 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 1,279 mi-2 hr TZ
35 43
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
20
UTEP
25
P&R Line UTEP -5
P&R Total O/U 45.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UTEP -4.5 · O/U 42.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kennesaw State, while Game Control favors UTEP. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kennesaw State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
UTEP wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UTEP -4.5
O/U 42.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTEP · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 UTEP 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Kennesaw State 2nd straight Road Game
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTEP PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTEP
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #134
+0.097
UTEP #121
+0.283
UTEP Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.207
UTEP #108
+0.424
UTEP Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
UTEP #34
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #103
+7.354
UTEP #132
+6.962
Kennesaw State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.711
UTEP #124
+0.832
UTEP Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
UTEP #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kennesaw State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
UTEP
-16.2
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
UTEP
4.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
UTEP
20.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #102
0.29
UTEP #130
0.13
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #91
1.71
UTEP #130
1.75
Kennesaw State +0.16
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTEP Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
17.1
UTEP #1
21.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #129
65.7
UTEP #120
59.7
UTEP +4.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself