New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee Week 13 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" Murfreesboro, TN · Turf · 31,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,189 mi+1 hr TZ
36 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
26
NMSU +3.5
Middle Tennessee
27
P&R Line New Mexico State -0
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Middle Tennessee -3.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico State, while Game Control favors Middle Tennessee. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -3.5
O/U 54.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Middle Tennessee Coming off BYE 🚌 New Mexico State 2nd straight Road Game
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
New Mexico State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #119
+0.400
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.385
New Mexico State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
+0.518
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.559
Middle Tennessee Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
0.123
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Middle Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #82
+8.410
Middle Tennessee #128
+6.704
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #106
+0.887
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.807
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #117
0.22
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #123
2.33
Middle Tennessee #133
2.00
New Mexico State +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Middle Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
18.0
Middle Tennessee #1
23.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #122
63.4
Middle Tennessee #131
58.8
Middle Tennessee +5.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself