Kennesaw State at San José State Week 3 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at San José State Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium San Jose, CA · Turf · 30,456 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 2,092 mi-3 hr TZ
10 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
13
SJSU -16.5
San José State
34
P&R Line San José State -21
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San José State -16.5 · O/U 41.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -16.5
O/U 41.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #134
+0.067
San José State #71
+0.394
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.189
San José State #39
+0.601
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
San José State #47
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #103
+7.080
San José State #96
+7.751
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.722
San José State #56
+0.902
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
San José State #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kennesaw State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.2
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.7
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
15.9
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #102
0.00
San José State #41
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #91
2.50
San José State #58
0.00
Kennesaw State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
12.6
San José State #1
62.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #129
73.3
San José State #63
25.3
San José State +49.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
San José State
67.6 — 14.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San José State won by 21
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself