Sat, Sep 7 2024
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
·
Turf
·
64,038 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 206 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -42.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss | +42.5L3–52 | 60.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +10.5L21–49 | 53.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Middle Tennessee vs Duke | +14.5L17–45 | 51.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | +27.0L7–24 | 62.0 | L7–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | +5.0L21–48 | 48.0 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State | -8.5W14–5 | 50.0 | W14–5 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/23 | Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State | +20.5L20–42 | 64.5 | L20–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.0W20–13 | 48.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Middle Tennessee vs Liberty | +12.5L17–37 | 54.5 | L17–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -3.5L21–36 | 54.0 | L21–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | +9.5L24–35 | 50.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
Ole Miss 2024 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ole Miss vs Furman | -45.5W76–0 | 58.5 | W76–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee | -42.5W52–3 | 60.5 | W52–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ole Miss at Wake Forest | -20.5W40–6 | 65.5 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern | -35.0W52–13 | 68.5 | W52–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Ole Miss vs Kentucky | -15.0L17–20 | 51.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Ole Miss at South Carolina | -10.0W27–3 | 53.0 | W27–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ole Miss at LSU | -3.5L26–29 | 64.5 | L26–29 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ole Miss vs Oklahoma | -19.0W26–14 | 50.0 | W26–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ole Miss at Arkansas | -8.0W63–31 | 54.0 | W63–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ole Miss vs Georgia | +1.5W28–10 | 54.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Ole Miss at Florida | -13.0L17–24 | 57.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State | -26.5W26–14 | 63.5 | W26–14 | U | N |
| Thu 1/2 | Ole Miss vs Duke | -17.5W52–20 | 50.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +16.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
6 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
91.7 — 3.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 49
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Bodie Reeder
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Stewart
Yr 1
#1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
34–15 (69%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

