Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss Week 2 College Football Matchup Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, MS · Turf · 64,038 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 206 miSame TZ
3 52
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Middle Tennessee
9
MTSU +42.5
Ole Miss
47
P&R Line Ole Miss -38
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ole Miss -42.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Ole Miss wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -42.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Ole Miss 2nd straight Home Game
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Ole Miss 2024 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Ole Miss vs Furman-45.5W76–058.5W76–0OY
Sat 9/7Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.5W52–360.5W52–3UY
Sat 9/14Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.5W40–665.5W40–6UY
Sat 9/21Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.0W52–1368.5W52–13UY
Sat 9/28Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.0L17–2051.5L17–20UN
Sat 10/5Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.0W27–353.0W27–3UY
Sat 10/12Ole Miss at LSU-3.5L26–2964.5L26–29UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.0W26–1450.0W26–14UN
Sat 11/2Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.0W63–3154.0W63–31OY
Sat 11/9Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.5W28–1054.5W28–10UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Ole Miss at Florida-13.0L17–2457.5L17–24UN
Fri 11/29Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.5W26–1463.5W26–14UN
Thu 1/2Ole Miss vs Duke-17.5W52–2050.5W52–20OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Ole Miss PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.170
Ole Miss #4
+0.663
Ole Miss Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.313
Ole Miss #3
+1.002
Ole Miss Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
Ole Miss #1
0.248
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ole Miss Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #128
+5.981
Ole Miss #58
+8.610
Ole Miss Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.747
Ole Miss #19
+0.968
Ole Miss Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Ole Miss #55
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ole Miss Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Ole Miss Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Middle Tennessee
-17.4
Ole Miss
16.2
Offense Rating
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Ole Miss
22.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Ole Miss
5.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Middle Tennessee Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Ole Miss #1
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Ole Miss #1
0.00
Middle Tennessee +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ole Miss Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Middle Tennessee #1
78.0
Ole Miss #1
94.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #131
9.4
Ole Miss #1
2.5
Ole Miss +16.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ole Miss
6 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ole Miss
91.7 — 3.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Ole Miss won by 49
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
34–15 (69%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Charlie Weis Jr. Yr 2 #1
DC Bryan Brown Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself