Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech Week 7 College Football Matchup Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 7
Fri, Oct 11 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 426 miSame TZ
21 48
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Middle Tennessee
18
LT -5
Louisiana Tech
30
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -12
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -5 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -5
O/U 48.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Louisiana Tech Coming off BYE 🛋 Middle Tennessee Coming off BYE
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.224
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.343
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.341
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.601
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #128
+6.719
Louisiana Tech #124
+7.703
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.767
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.868
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisiana Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Offense Rating
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Louisiana Tech #81
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #133
3.25
Louisiana Tech #18
0.33
Louisiana Tech +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Middle Tennessee #1
20.2
Louisiana Tech #1
33.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #131
68.9
Louisiana Tech #76
39.2
Louisiana Tech +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
73.3 — 12.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself