Kennesaw State at UTSA Week 1 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at UTSA Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 31 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Alamodome San Antonio, TX · Turf · 65,000 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 876 mi-1 hr TZ
16 28
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
13
UTSA
40
P&R Line UTSA -27
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UTSA -24 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UTSA -24
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UTSA · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
UTSA 2024 Schedule
UTSA's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTSA vs Kennesaw State-24.0W28–1649.5W28–16UN
Sat 9/7UTSA at Texas State+2.5L10–4958.5L10–49ON
Sat 9/14UTSA at Texas+36.5L7–5656.5L7–56ON
Sat 9/21UTSA vs Houston Christian-35.5W45–754.5W45–7UY
Sat 9/28UTSA at East Carolina+2.0L20–3053.5L20–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12UTSA at Rice-3.5L27–2951.0L27–29ON
Sat 10/19UTSA vs Florida Atlantic-4.0W38–2452.5W38–24OY
Sat 10/26UTSA at Tulsa-9.5L45–4652.5L45–46ON
Sat 11/2UTSA vs Memphis+7.0W44–3662.0W44–36OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15UTSA vs North Texas-1.0W48–2773.0W48–27OY
Fri 11/22UTSA vs Temple-16.5W51–2756.0W51–27OY
Sat 11/30UTSA at Army+6.5L24–2953.5L24–29UY
Mon 12/23UTSA vs Coastal Carolina-12.5W44–1556.5W44–15OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UTSA PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UTSA
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UTSA
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTSA
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #134
+0.093
UTSA #61
+0.410
UTSA Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.264
UTSA #52
+0.561
UTSA Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
UTSA #3
0.217
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTSA Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #103
+7.281
UTSA #94
+7.782
UTSA Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.658
UTSA #100
+0.863
UTSA Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
UTSA #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTSA Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTSA Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
UTSA
0.7
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
UTSA
16.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
UTSA
15.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #102
0.00
UTSA #44
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #91
0.00
UTSA #74
0.00
Kennesaw State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kennesaw State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
0.0
UTSA #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #129
0.0
UTSA #64
0.0
Kennesaw State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UTSA
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UTSA
86.5 — 7.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UTSA won by 12
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UTSA, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
39–14 (74%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Justin Burke Yr 2 #1
DC Jess Loepp Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself