Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State Week 6 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State Matchup - Week 6
Fri, Oct 4 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Fifth Third Bank Stadium Kennesaw, GA · Turf · 8,318 cap
63 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
37
JVST -17.5
Kennesaw State
17
P&R Line Jacksonville State -20
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -17.5 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -17.5
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kennesaw State 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 Jacksonville State Coming off BYE
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #22
+0.482
Kennesaw State #134
+0.107
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.607
Kennesaw State #133
+0.208
Jacksonville State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #66
0.162
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #3
+9.000
Kennesaw State #103
+7.312
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.914
Kennesaw State #133
+0.746
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #81
71.5
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kennesaw State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Kennesaw State
-4.2
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
Kennesaw State
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.0
Kennesaw State
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #76
1.25
Kennesaw State #102
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #33
1.00
Kennesaw State #91
2.00
Jacksonville State +1.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
34.0
Kennesaw State #1
13.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #50
55.2
Kennesaw State #129
69.0
Jacksonville State +20.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 2 #1
DC Luke Olson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself