Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
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Turf
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31,000 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Middle Tennessee wins
Strong
Tennessee Tech 2024 Schedule
Tennessee Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Tennessee Tech at Middle Tennessee | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Tennessee Tech at Georgia | +54.5L3–48 | 62.5 | L3–48 | U | Y |
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss | +42.5L3–52 | 60.5 | L3–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +10.5L21–49 | 53.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Middle Tennessee vs Duke | +14.5L17–45 | 51.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Middle Tennessee at Memphis | +27.0L7–24 | 62.0 | L7–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | +5.0L21–48 | 48.0 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State | -8.5W14–5 | 50.0 | W14–5 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/23 | Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State | +20.5L20–42 | 64.5 | L20–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.0W20–13 | 48.0 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Middle Tennessee vs Liberty | +12.5L17–37 | 54.5 | L17–37 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State | -3.5L21–36 | 54.0 | L21–36 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | +9.5L24–35 | 50.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee Tech Edge
Tennessee Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +34.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓