Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech Week 14 College Football Matchup Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
Kennesaw State✈ 478 mi-1 hr TZ
0 33
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kennesaw State
15
Louisiana Tech
29
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -13.5
P&R Total O/U 43.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -13.5 · O/U 41.5
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -13.5
O/U 41.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kennesaw State at UTSA+24.0L16–2849.5L16–28UY
Sat 9/7Kennesaw State vs Louisiana+14.5L10–3446.5L10–34UN
Sat 9/14Kennesaw State at San José State+16.5L10–3141.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Kennesaw State vs UT Martin+1.5L13–2445.5L13–24UN
Fri 10/4Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State+17.5L24–6349.5L24–63ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee+8.5L5–1450.0L5–14UN
Wed 10/23Kennesaw State vs Liberty+27.0W27–2448.0W27–24OY
Wed 10/30Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky+24.0L14–3149.0L14–31UY
Sat 11/9Kennesaw State at UTEP+4.5L35–4342.0L35–43ON
Sat 11/16Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston+21.0L17–2342.5L17–23UY
Sat 11/23Kennesaw State vs Florida International+9.0W27–2642.5W27–26OY
Sat 11/30Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech+13.5L0–3341.5L0–33UN
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kennesaw State #134
+0.063
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.231
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.142
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.402
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #112
0.136
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kennesaw State #103
+7.219
Louisiana Tech #124
+7.243
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #133
+0.687
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.837
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kennesaw State #73
71.1
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kennesaw State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kennesaw State
-4.3
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
Offense Rating
Kennesaw State
11.8
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kennesaw State
16.0
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kennesaw State #102
0.30
Louisiana Tech #81
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #91
1.30
Louisiana Tech #18
0.30
Louisiana Tech +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kennesaw State #1
19.4
Louisiana Tech #1
34.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kennesaw State #129
58.8
Louisiana Tech #76
38.3
Louisiana Tech +15.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
90.6 — 5.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Chandler Burks Yr 1 #1
DC Greg Harris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself