Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Fifth Third Bank Stadium
Kennesaw, GA
·
Turf
·
8,318 cap
Sam Houston✈ 679 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Sam Houston
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Sam Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Sam Houston wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston -21
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Sam Houston
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Sam Houston at Rice | +9.5W34–14 | 49.0 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Sam Houston at UCF | +21.5L14–45 | 53.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Sam Houston vs Hawai'i | -3.5W31–13 | 48.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Sam Houston vs New Mexico State | -15.5W31–11 | 44.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Sam Houston vs Texas State | +11.0W40–39 | 55.0 | W40–39 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/3 | Sam Houston at UTEP | -10.0W41–21 | 49.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/16 | Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky | -1.5L14–31 | 55.0 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | -5.0W10–7 | 47.0 | W10–7 | U | N |
| Tue 10/29 | Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech | -10.5W9–3 | 45.5 | W9–3 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Sam Houston at Kennesaw State | -21.0W23–17 | 42.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Sam Houston at Jacksonville State | +5.5L11–21 | 57.5 | L11–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Sam Houston vs Liberty | +2.5W20–18 | 47.5 | W20–18 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/19 | Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern | +3.5W31–26 | 48.0 | W31–26 | O | Y |
Kennesaw State 2024 Schedule
Kennesaw State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kennesaw State at UTSA | +24.0L16–28 | 49.5 | L16–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Kennesaw State vs Louisiana | +14.5L10–34 | 46.5 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Kennesaw State at San José State | +16.5L10–31 | 41.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Kennesaw State vs UT Martin | +1.5L13–24 | 45.5 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State | +17.5L24–63 | 49.5 | L24–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee | +8.5L5–14 | 50.0 | L5–14 | U | N |
| Wed 10/23 | Kennesaw State vs Liberty | +27.0W27–24 | 48.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky | +24.0L14–31 | 49.0 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Kennesaw State at UTEP | +4.5L35–43 | 42.0 | L35–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Kennesaw State vs Sam Houston | +21.0L17–23 | 42.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Kennesaw State vs Florida International | +9.0W27–26 | 42.5 | W27–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech | +13.5L0–33 | 41.5 | L0–33 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Sam Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Sam Houston Edge
Sam Houston +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Sam Houston Edge
Sam Houston +34.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Sam Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 2
#1
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#1
Kennesaw State
Brian Bohannon #1
71–30 (70%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Chandler Burks
Yr 1
#1
DC
Greg Harris
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

