Middle Tennessee at Memphis Week 5 College Football Matchup Middle Tennessee at Memphis Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 209 miSame TZ
7 24
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Middle Tennessee
14
Memphis
45
P&R Line Memphis -31
P&R Total O/U 59
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Memphis -27 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
Memphis has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Memphis wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Memphis wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Memphis -27
O/U 62.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Middle Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee Tech-11.5
Sat 9/7Middle Tennessee at Ole Miss+42.5L3–5260.5L3–52UN
Sat 9/14Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky+10.5L21–4953.5L21–49ON
Sat 9/21Middle Tennessee vs Duke+14.5L17–4551.0L17–45ON
Sat 9/28Middle Tennessee at Memphis+27.0L7–2462.0L7–24UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech+5.0L21–4848.0L21–48ON
Tue 10/15Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State-8.5W14–550.0W14–5UY
Wed 10/23Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State+20.5L20–4264.5L20–42UN
Sat 11/2Middle Tennessee at UTEP+2.0W20–1348.0W20–13UY
Sat 11/9Middle Tennessee vs Liberty+12.5L17–3754.5L17–37UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State-3.5L21–3654.0L21–36ON
Sat 11/30Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+9.5L24–3550.5L24–35ON
Memphis 2024 Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Memphis vs North Alabama-38.5W40–062.5W40–0UY
Sat 9/7Memphis vs Troy-18.5W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/14Memphis at Florida State+7.0W20–1252.0W20–12UY
Sat 9/21Memphis at Navy-9.5L44–5647.0L44–56ON
Sat 9/28Memphis vs Middle Tennessee-27.0W24–762.0W24–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Memphis vs South Florida-10.0W21–361.0W21–3UY
Sat 10/19Memphis vs North Texas-10.5W52–4467.5W52–44ON
Sat 10/26Memphis vs Charlotte-17.0W33–2856.5W33–28ON
Sat 11/2Memphis at UTSA-7.0L36–4462.0L36–44ON
Fri 11/8Memphis vs Rice-7.5W27–2050.5W27–20UN
Sat 11/16Memphis vs UAB-16.0W53–1862.0W53–18OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/28Memphis at Tulane+12.5W34–2454.5W34–24OY
Tue 12/17Memphis vs West Virginia-5.0W42–3760.0W42–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Middle Tennessee #107
+0.318
Memphis #23
+0.593
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #95
+0.474
Memphis #42
+0.786
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #108
0.139
Memphis #11
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Middle Tennessee #128
+7.046
Memphis #14
+9.266
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #105
+0.795
Memphis #57
+0.931
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Middle Tennessee #133
74.8
Memphis #12
67.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Middle Tennessee
-17.5
Memphis
3.2
Offense Rating
Middle Tennessee
5.5
Memphis
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Middle Tennessee
22.9
Memphis
13.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Memphis Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Middle Tennessee #133
0.00
Memphis #11
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #133
3.67
Memphis #65
1.33
Memphis +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Middle Tennessee #1
23.0
Memphis #1
66.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Middle Tennessee #131
67.3
Memphis #4
20.9
Memphis +43.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Memphis
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Memphis
75.0 — 9.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 17
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Memphis with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Derek Mason #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bodie Reeder Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Stewart Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
31–19 (62%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself