New Mexico at Arizona Week 1 College Football Matchup New Mexico at Arizona Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Sep 1 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Arizona Stadium Tucson, AZ · Turf · 56,029 cap
New Mexico✈ 316 mi-1 hr TZ
39 61
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico
24
UNM +28
Arizona
38
P&R Line Arizona -13.5
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arizona -28.0 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Arizona -28.0
O/U 60.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24New Mexico vs Montana State+10.5L31–3554.0L31–35OY
Sat 8/31New Mexico at Arizona+28.0L39–6160.0L39–61OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14New Mexico at Auburn+25.5L19–4558.5L19–45ON
Sat 9/21New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.0L21–3861.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.5W50–4054.0W50–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12New Mexico vs Air Force-7.0W52–3756.0W52–37OY
Sat 10/19New Mexico at Utah State-1.0W50–4578.5W50–45OY
Sat 10/26New Mexico at Colorado State+3.5L6–1762.0L6–17UN
Sat 11/2New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.5L45–4960.5L45–49ON
Fri 11/8New Mexico at San Diego State+1.5W21–1665.5W21–16UY
Sat 11/16New Mexico vs Washington State+10.5W38–3572.5W38–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.5L30–3861.5L30–38ON
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arizona vs New Mexico-28.0W61–3960.0W61–39ON
Sat 9/7Arizona vs Northern Arizona-43.0W22–1065.0W22–10UN
Fri 9/13Arizona at Kansas State+7.0L7–3158.0L7–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Arizona at Utah+7.5W23–1047.0W23–10UY
Sat 10/5Arizona vs Texas Tech-6.0L22–2864.0L22–28UN
Sat 10/12Arizona at BYU+3.0L19–4148.5L19–41ON
Sat 10/19Arizona vs Colorado-2.5L7–3457.5L7–34UN
Sat 10/26Arizona vs West Virginia-5.5L26–3151.5L26–31ON
Sat 11/2Arizona at UCF+6.5L12–5655.0L12–56ON
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Arizona vs Houston-1.0W27–346.5W27–3UY
Sat 11/23Arizona at TCU+10.5L28–4960.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/30Arizona vs Arizona State+7.5L7–4952.5L7–49ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico #14
+0.547
Arizona #93
+0.490
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #77
+0.551
Arizona #88
+0.735
Arizona Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico #114
0.135
Arizona #99
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arizona Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico #79
+8.383
Arizona #101
+8.169
New Mexico Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico #10
+0.934
Arizona #117
+0.889
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico #121
73.2
Arizona #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arizona Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arizona Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico
1.2
Arizona
9.6
Offense Rating
New Mexico
17.3
Arizona
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico
16.1
Arizona
11.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico #118
0.00
Arizona #58
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #81
0.00
Arizona #114
0.00
New Mexico +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico #1
70.1
Arizona #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico #98
15.6
Arizona #121
0.0
New Mexico +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arizona
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arizona
56.6 — 13.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Arizona won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arizona, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dino Babers Yr 1 #1
DC Duane Akina Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself