Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona,
while Game Control favors UCF.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arizona wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
UCF wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -6.5
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UCF
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2024 Schedule
Arizona's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arizona vs New Mexico | -28.0W61–39 | 60.0 | W61–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Arizona vs Northern Arizona | -43.0W22–10 | 65.0 | W22–10 | U | N |
| Fri 9/13 | Arizona at Kansas State | +7.0L7–31 | 58.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Arizona at Utah | +7.5W23–10 | 47.0 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Arizona vs Texas Tech | -6.0L22–28 | 64.0 | L22–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Arizona at BYU | +3.0L19–41 | 48.5 | L19–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Arizona vs Colorado | -2.5L7–34 | 57.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Arizona vs West Virginia | -5.5L26–31 | 51.5 | L26–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Arizona at UCF | +6.5L12–56 | 55.0 | L12–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Arizona vs Houston | -1.0W27–3 | 46.5 | W27–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arizona at TCU | +10.5L28–49 | 60.0 | L28–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Arizona vs Arizona State | +7.5L7–49 | 52.5 | L7–49 | O | N |
UCF 2024 Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | UCF vs New Hampshire | -38.5W57–3 | 58.5 | W57–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | UCF vs Sam Houston | -21.5W45–14 | 53.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | UCF at TCU | +1.5W35–34 | 61.5 | W35–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | UCF vs Colorado | -12.5L21–48 | 60.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | UCF at Florida | -1.0L13–24 | 62.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | UCF vs Cincinnati | -2.0L13–19 | 58.0 | L13–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | UCF at Iowa State | +13.0L35–38 | 49.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | UCF vs BYU | -2.5L24–37 | 53.5 | L24–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | UCF vs Arizona | -6.5W56–12 | 55.0 | W56–12 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | UCF at Arizona State | +2.5L31–35 | 55.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | UCF at West Virginia | -3.0L21–31 | 60.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | UCF vs Utah | -9.5L14–28 | 45.5 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UCF Edge
UCF +4.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
84.7 — 5.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
UCF won by 44
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Brent Brennan #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Dino Babers
Yr 1
#1
DC
Duane Akina
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
24–16 (60%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Harris Jr.
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ted Roof
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓